Recent forecast models from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow will see overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving the daily minimum to the 9–11 °C range. This aligns with climatological August lows near 12 °C while incorporating a modest cool anomaly from a passing trough and light westerly flow. Current observations show temperatures already falling through the mid-teens Celsius after a daytime peak near 16 °C, with dew-point and wind data supporting further nocturnal decline. Trader positioning heavily favors 10 °C because model runs converge on that threshold without signals of stronger cold advection that would push readings to 8 °C or below. Updated guidance later today or early tomorrow could refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
10°C 99.5%
9°C 1.0%
8°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$3,762 Vol.
$3,762 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
10°C 99.5%
9°C 1.0%
8°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$3,762 Vol.
$3,762 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$301 Vol.
No
9°C
$283 Vol.
No
10°C
$339 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$326 Vol.
No
12°C
$316 Vol.
No
13°C
$220 Vol.
No
14°C
$263 Vol.
No
15°C
$845 Vol.
No
16°C
$200 Vol.
No
17°C
$260 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$410 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow will see overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving the daily minimum to the 9–11 °C range. This aligns with climatological August lows near 12 °C while incorporating a modest cool anomaly from a passing trough and light westerly flow. Current observations show temperatures already falling through the mid-teens Celsius after a daytime peak near 16 °C, with dew-point and wind data supporting further nocturnal decline. Trader positioning heavily favors 10 °C because model runs converge on that threshold without signals of stronger cold advection that would push readings to 8 °C or below. Updated guidance later today or early tomorrow could refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$3,762End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow will see overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving the daily minimum to the 9–11 °C range. This aligns with climatological August lows near 12 °C while incorporating a modest cool anomaly from a passing trough and light westerly flow. Current observations show temperatures already falling through the mid-teens Celsius after a daytime peak near 16 °C, with dew-point and wind data supporting further nocturnal decline. Trader positioning heavily favors 10 °C because model runs converge on that threshold without signals of stronger cold advection that would push readings to 8 °C or below. Updated guidance later today or early tomorrow could refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,762End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent forecast models from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Moscow will see overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, driving the daily minimum to the 9–11 °C range. This aligns with climatological August lows near 12 °C while incorporating a modest cool anomaly from a passing trough and light westerly flow. Current observations show temperatures already falling through the mid-teens Celsius after a daytime peak near 16 °C, with dew-point and wind data supporting further nocturnal decline. Trader positioning heavily favors 10 °C because model runs converge on that threshold without signals of stronger cold advection that would push readings to 8 °C or below. Updated guidance later today or early tomorrow could refine the exact minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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