The active southwest monsoon (habagat) remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 28 overnight low, sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered to moderate thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that suppresses radiative cooling. Persistent southwesterly flow and high moisture content limit the diurnal temperature range, keeping most official guidance clustered around 24–26 °C, consistent with climatological August minima near 25 °C. Recent model runs and PAGASA outlooks show modest spread tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts, creating roughly equal market-implied odds across adjacent bins. Urban heat-island effects and variable wind speeds add further uncertainty to the precise dawn minimum, with new forecast updates expected to tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 28?
21°C or below 100%
22°C 100%
23°C 100%
24°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
100%
22°C
100%
23°C
100%
24°C
100%
25°C
100%
26°C
100%
27°C
100%
28°C
100%
29°C
100%
30°C
100%
31°C or higher
100%
21°C or below 100%
22°C 100%
23°C 100%
24°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
22°C
$0 Vol.
100%
23°C
$0 Vol.
100%
24°C
$0 Vol.
100%
25°C
$0 Vol.
100%
26°C
$0 Vol.
100%
27°C
$0 Vol.
100%
28°C
$0 Vol.
100%
29°C
$0 Vol.
100%
30°C
$0 Vol.
100%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon (habagat) remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 28 overnight low, sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered to moderate thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that suppresses radiative cooling. Persistent southwesterly flow and high moisture content limit the diurnal temperature range, keeping most official guidance clustered around 24–26 °C, consistent with climatological August minima near 25 °C. Recent model runs and PAGASA outlooks show modest spread tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts, creating roughly equal market-implied odds across adjacent bins. Urban heat-island effects and variable wind speeds add further uncertainty to the precise dawn minimum, with new forecast updates expected to tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon (habagat) remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 28 overnight low, sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered to moderate thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that suppresses radiative cooling. Persistent southwesterly flow and high moisture content limit the diurnal temperature range, keeping most official guidance clustered around 24–26 °C, consistent with climatological August minima near 25 °C. Recent model runs and PAGASA outlooks show modest spread tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts, creating roughly equal market-implied odds across adjacent bins. Urban heat-island effects and variable wind speeds add further uncertainty to the precise dawn minimum, with new forecast updates expected to tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The active southwest monsoon (habagat) remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Manila’s August 28 overnight low, sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered to moderate thunderstorms, and elevated humidity that suppresses radiative cooling. Persistent southwesterly flow and high moisture content limit the diurnal temperature range, keeping most official guidance clustered around 24–26 °C, consistent with climatological August minima near 25 °C. Recent model runs and PAGASA outlooks show modest spread tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts, creating roughly equal market-implied odds across adjacent bins. Urban heat-island effects and variable wind speeds add further uncertainty to the precise dawn minimum, with new forecast updates expected to tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions