Recent polling from Quaest, released August 27, shows a fragmented field for Acre's two Senate seats on October 4, with Gladson Cameli (PP) at 19-24% in first-vote scenarios, Márcio Bittar (PL) at 14-16%, and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) and Jorge Viana (PT) clustered near 10-15% within margins of error. Cameli's resignation as governor and ongoing legal challenges over a prior conviction have introduced uncertainty that traders appear to factor into lower odds for him. Established name recognition, party coalitions such as Avança Acre, and regional voting patterns among incumbents and former officeholders sustain the tight implied probabilities across the top contenders, with 14-17% undecided or blank/null responses. Official campaigning and any shifts in voter consolidation could create separation before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarcio Bittar 35%
Mara Rocha 31.1%
Gladson Camelí 24.1%
Jorge Viana 5.7%
$22,664 Vol.
$22,664 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcio Bittar
35%
Mara Rocha
31%
Gladson Camelí
24%
Jorge Viana
6%
Dr. Junior Feitosa
2%
Petecão
<1%
Eduardo Velloso
<1%
Professor Inacio Moreira
<1%
Marcio Bittar 35%
Mara Rocha 31.1%
Gladson Camelí 24.1%
Jorge Viana 5.7%
$22,664 Vol.
$22,664 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcio Bittar
$8,895 Vol.
35%
Mara Rocha
$2,381 Vol.
31%
Gladson Camelí
$7,523 Vol.
24%
Jorge Viana
$1,062 Vol.
6%
Dr. Junior Feitosa
$498 Vol.
2%
Petecão
$1,007 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Velloso
$583 Vol.
<1%
Professor Inacio Moreira
$716 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest, released August 27, shows a fragmented field for Acre's two Senate seats on October 4, with Gladson Cameli (PP) at 19-24% in first-vote scenarios, Márcio Bittar (PL) at 14-16%, and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) and Jorge Viana (PT) clustered near 10-15% within margins of error. Cameli's resignation as governor and ongoing legal challenges over a prior conviction have introduced uncertainty that traders appear to factor into lower odds for him. Established name recognition, party coalitions such as Avança Acre, and regional voting patterns among incumbents and former officeholders sustain the tight implied probabilities across the top contenders, with 14-17% undecided or blank/null responses. Official campaigning and any shifts in voter consolidation could create separation before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:46 AM ET
Volume
$22,664End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest, released August 27, shows a fragmented field for Acre's two Senate seats on October 4, with Gladson Cameli (PP) at 19-24% in first-vote scenarios, Márcio Bittar (PL) at 14-16%, and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) and Jorge Viana (PT) clustered near 10-15% within margins of error. Cameli's resignation as governor and ongoing legal challenges over a prior conviction have introduced uncertainty that traders appear to factor into lower odds for him. Established name recognition, party coalitions such as Avança Acre, and regional voting patterns among incumbents and former officeholders sustain the tight implied probabilities across the top contenders, with 14-17% undecided or blank/null responses. Official campaigning and any shifts in voter consolidation could create separation before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Acre is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,664End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest, released August 27, shows a fragmented field for Acre's two Senate seats on October 4, with Gladson Cameli (PP) at 19-24% in first-vote scenarios, Márcio Bittar (PL) at 14-16%, and Mara Rocha (Republicanos) and Jorge Viana (PT) clustered near 10-15% within margins of error. Cameli's resignation as governor and ongoing legal challenges over a prior conviction have introduced uncertainty that traders appear to factor into lower odds for him. Established name recognition, party coalitions such as Avança Acre, and regional voting patterns among incumbents and former officeholders sustain the tight implied probabilities across the top contenders, with 14-17% undecided or blank/null responses. Official campaigning and any shifts in voter consolidation could create separation before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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