Susan Lahey holds a commanding 98% implied probability in the York—Simcoe by-election market due to the riding’s consistent Progressive Conservative control, including Caroline Mulroney’s 59% victory in 2025, and Lahey’s profile as the Ford-appointed candidate, East Gwillimbury councillor, and small-business owner with deep local ties. The September 3 vote follows Mulroney’s June resignation, with advance polls underway and key issues such as the Bradford Bypass, Highway 400 upgrades, and Southlake hospital expansion aligning with PC priorities. Fragmented opposition across Liberals, NDP, Greens, and minor parties limits any single challenger. Late developments like unusually low turnout or unforeseen scandals remain the main factors that could alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSusan Lahey 98.3%
Naomi Davison 1.0%
Matt Pearce <1%
David Ghobrial <1%
Susan Lahey
98%
Naomi Davison
1%
Matt Pearce
1%
David Ghobrial
1%
Gerald Auger
<1%
Bobby Nikmard
<1%
Sean Conroy
<1%
Susan Lahey 98.3%
Naomi Davison 1.0%
Matt Pearce <1%
David Ghobrial <1%
Susan Lahey
98%
Naomi Davison
1%
Matt Pearce
1%
David Ghobrial
1%
Gerald Auger
<1%
Bobby Nikmard
<1%
Sean Conroy
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:47 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Susan Lahey holds a commanding 98% implied probability in the York—Simcoe by-election market due to the riding’s consistent Progressive Conservative control, including Caroline Mulroney’s 59% victory in 2025, and Lahey’s profile as the Ford-appointed candidate, East Gwillimbury councillor, and small-business owner with deep local ties. The September 3 vote follows Mulroney’s June resignation, with advance polls underway and key issues such as the Bradford Bypass, Highway 400 upgrades, and Southlake hospital expansion aligning with PC priorities. Fragmented opposition across Liberals, NDP, Greens, and minor parties limits any single challenger. Late developments like unusually low turnout or unforeseen scandals remain the main factors that could alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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