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icon for Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·By Election

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·By Election

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner

Heino Doessing 50%

Jeff Beattie 23%

Monique Taylor 14%

Heather Curnew <1%

Polymarket

$16,701 Vol.

Heino Doessing 50%

Jeff Beattie 23%

Monique Taylor 14%

Heather Curnew <1%

Polymarket

$16,701 Vol.

icon for Heino Doessing

Heino Doessing

$8,845 Vol.

50%

icon for Jeff Beattie

Jeff Beattie

$1,060 Vol.

23%

icon for Monique Taylor

Monique Taylor

$5,950 Vol.

14%

icon for Heather Curnew

Heather Curnew

$244 Vol.

<1%

icon for Wieslawa Derlatka

Wieslawa Derlatka

$356 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pascale Marchand

Pascale Marchand

$247 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election on September 3 features a crowded field after Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden’s retirement, with nominations closing August 20. Jeff Beattie (PC), the local Ward 10 councillor, holds the highest listed odds among named candidates, followed by former Hamilton Mountain MPP Monique Taylor (NDP), while Heino Doessing (Liberal) and Pascale Marchand (Green) also appear. Recent Ontario Land Tribunal rulings expanding Hamilton’s urban boundary have become a flashpoint, prompting opposition criticism of provincial development policy and positioning from all parties on farmland protection. Healthcare access and local representation further define the contest in this multi-candidate race. Low early turnout expectations typical of by-elections and the split opposition vote keep probabilities tightly clustered, with any late endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in voter mobilization on boundary and service issues likely to create separation before election day.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$16,701
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election on September 3 features a crowded field after Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden’s retirement, with nominations closing August 20. Jeff Beattie (PC), the local Ward 10 councillor, holds the highest listed odds among named candidates, followed by former Hamilton Mountain MPP Monique Taylor (NDP), while Heino Doessing (Liberal) and Pascale Marchand (Green) also appear. Recent Ontario Land Tribunal rulings expanding Hamilton’s urban boundary have become a flashpoint, prompting opposition criticism of provincial development policy and positioning from all parties on farmland protection. Healthcare access and local representation further define the contest in this multi-candidate race. Low early turnout expectations typical of by-elections and the split opposition vote keep probabilities tightly clustered, with any late endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in voter mobilization on boundary and service issues likely to create separation before election day.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$16,701
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Heino Doessing" at 50%, followed by "Jeff Beattie" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner" has generated $16.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner" is "Heino Doessing" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jeff Beattie" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Provincial By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.