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Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner

Fatima Shaban 51%

Ahsanul Hafiz 45%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$14,959 Vol.

Fatima Shaban 51%

Ahsanul Hafiz 45%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$14,959 Vol.

icon for Fatima Shaban

Fatima Shaban

$6,733 Vol.

51%

icon for Ahsanul Hafiz

Ahsanul Hafiz

$6,434 Vol.

45%

icon for Noor Tarun

Noor Tarun

$607 Vol.

1%

icon for Mark Bekkering

Mark Bekkering

$611 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chris Rees

Chris Rees

$574 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election on September 3, 2026, features a competitive three-way contest among NDP candidate Fatima Shaban, Liberal Ahsanul Hafiz, and Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun following the February resignation of incumbent NDP MPP Doly Begum. Shaban's strong local organizing and community ties have kept her at the front of trader consensus, while Hafiz's nomination and Tarun's profile as a physician have sustained pressure from the other major parties in this diverse Toronto riding. A mid-August candidates' meeting and ongoing ground campaigns have not yet produced decisive separation in sentiment, reflecting historical volatility in Ontario by-elections where turnout and local issues like housing and transit often decide narrow margins. Minor-party and independent options remain sidelined at low implied probabilities.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$14,959
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election on September 3, 2026, features a competitive three-way contest among NDP candidate Fatima Shaban, Liberal Ahsanul Hafiz, and Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun following the February resignation of incumbent NDP MPP Doly Begum. Shaban's strong local organizing and community ties have kept her at the front of trader consensus, while Hafiz's nomination and Tarun's profile as a physician have sustained pressure from the other major parties in this diverse Toronto riding. A mid-August candidates' meeting and ongoing ground campaigns have not yet produced decisive separation in sentiment, reflecting historical volatility in Ontario by-elections where turnout and local issues like housing and transit often decide narrow margins. Minor-party and independent options remain sidelined at low implied probabilities.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$14,959
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fatima Shaban" at 51%, followed by "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" has generated $15K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" is "Fatima Shaban" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.