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icon for Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Politics·Sweden

Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?

icon for Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Politics·Sweden

Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?

5-7% 50%

7-9% 34%

<5% 16.8%

9%+ 5.1%

Polymarket
NEW

5-7% 50%

7-9% 34%

<5% 16.8%

9%+ 5.1%

Polymarket
NEW

<5%

$1,908 Vol.

17%

5-7%

$1,110 Vol.

50%

7-9%

$817 Vol.

34%

9%+

$418 Vol.

5%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Miljöpartiet (MP) support in a narrow band around 6.5–7.9 percent, with the latest readings from Demoskop (6.8 percent), Indikator (6.5 percent), Ipsos (6.8 percent) and Novus (7.9 percent) all clustering near the middle of that range. This stability after the party’s 5.1 percent result in 2022 underpins the market’s heaviest weighting on the 5–7 percent bracket, followed by 7–9 percent. The broader campaign has seen modest bloc tightening ahead of the September 13 vote, but MP figures have shown only small week-to-week movements without clear upward or downward momentum. Traders therefore treat the current polling average as the most reliable guide to final vote share.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$4,254
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:44 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Miljöpartiet (MP) support in a narrow band around 6.5–7.9 percent, with the latest readings from Demoskop (6.8 percent), Indikator (6.5 percent), Ipsos (6.8 percent) and Novus (7.9 percent) all clustering near the middle of that range. This stability after the party’s 5.1 percent result in 2022 underpins the market’s heaviest weighting on the 5–7 percent bracket, followed by 7–9 percent. The broader campaign has seen modest bloc tightening ahead of the September 13 vote, but MP figures have shown only small week-to-week movements without clear upward or downward momentum. Traders therefore treat the current polling average as the most reliable guide to final vote share.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$4,254
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:44 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Related

icon for Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?

Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?

40%
icon for Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?

Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?

41%
icon for Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?

Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?

48%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5-7%" at 50%, followed by "7-9%" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?" is "5-7%" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "7-9%" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.