Recent polls from late August place Moderaterna support at 17-19 percent, with the latest Indikator survey showing 18.9 percent and the polling average near 17.6 percent. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on the 16-18 percent bracket as the most probable outcome. The right-wing Tidö bloc has narrowed its deficit to the centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 vote, driven by modest gains for M and Sweden Democrats amid campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, and energy security. Earlier 2026 surveys had shown M closer to or below 17 percent after declines from its 19.1 percent 2022 result, while the Liberals remain well below the four-percent threshold. These dynamics sustain the current market distribution, with upside to 20 percent or above viewed as less likely absent further bloc momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16-18% 42%
<16% 30%
18-20% 22%
20%+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
30%
16-18%
42%
18-20%
22%
20%+
12%
16-18% 42%
<16% 30%
18-20% 22%
20%+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
$2,256 Vol.
30%
16-18%
$2,030 Vol.
42%
18-20%
$615 Vol.
22%
20%+
$935 Vol.
12%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls from late August place Moderaterna support at 17-19 percent, with the latest Indikator survey showing 18.9 percent and the polling average near 17.6 percent. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on the 16-18 percent bracket as the most probable outcome. The right-wing Tidö bloc has narrowed its deficit to the centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 vote, driven by modest gains for M and Sweden Democrats amid campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, and energy security. Earlier 2026 surveys had shown M closer to or below 17 percent after declines from its 19.1 percent 2022 result, while the Liberals remain well below the four-percent threshold. These dynamics sustain the current market distribution, with upside to 20 percent or above viewed as less likely absent further bloc momentum.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ET
Volume
$5,837End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls from late August place Moderaterna support at 17-19 percent, with the latest Indikator survey showing 18.9 percent and the polling average near 17.6 percent. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on the 16-18 percent bracket as the most probable outcome. The right-wing Tidö bloc has narrowed its deficit to the centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 vote, driven by modest gains for M and Sweden Democrats amid campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, and energy security. Earlier 2026 surveys had shown M closer to or below 17 percent after declines from its 19.1 percent 2022 result, while the Liberals remain well below the four-percent threshold. These dynamics sustain the current market distribution, with upside to 20 percent or above viewed as less likely absent further bloc momentum.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$5,837End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from late August place Moderaterna support at 17-19 percent, with the latest Indikator survey showing 18.9 percent and the polling average near 17.6 percent. This positioning underpins trader emphasis on the 16-18 percent bracket as the most probable outcome. The right-wing Tidö bloc has narrowed its deficit to the centre-left opposition ahead of the September 13 vote, driven by modest gains for M and Sweden Democrats amid campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, and energy security. Earlier 2026 surveys had shown M closer to or below 17 percent after declines from its 19.1 percent 2022 result, while the Liberals remain well below the four-percent threshold. These dynamics sustain the current market distribution, with upside to 20 percent or above viewed as less likely absent further bloc momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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