**ADI leads trader consensus for second place at 62.5% implied probability in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, ahead of a broad field of smaller parties priced near 50% and MLSTP–PSD at 14%.** The July 19 presidential election, in which independent incumbent Carlos Vila Nova secured re-election with MLSTP–PSD backing after his split from ADI, has reshaped party alignments and voter perceptions ahead of the legislative vote. ADI’s candidate Nito Abreu finished second nationally but the party’s governing majority from 2022 faces headwinds from the presidential realignment and record-low turnout patterns. Proportional representation across districts and overseas constituencies favors established parties like ADI and MLSTP–PSD for top finishes, while fragmentation among smaller lists (MCI/PS–PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM and others) keeps their second-place odds dispersed. Traders appear to view ADI as retaining sufficient organizational strength for a strong showing even if first place proves competitive, with limited new polling or campaign developments since the presidential results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedADI 63%
MLSTP 14%
MDFM <1%
MCI-PS/PUN <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
63%
MLSTP
14%
MDFM
1%
MCI-PS/PUN
1%
Nossa Terra
<1%
Basta
<1%
PCD
<1%
ADI 63%
MLSTP 14%
MDFM <1%
MCI-PS/PUN <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
$1,517 Vol.
63%
MLSTP
$3,217 Vol.
14%
MDFM
$627 Vol.
1%
MCI-PS/PUN
$713 Vol.
1%
Nossa Terra
$664 Vol.
<1%
Basta
$649 Vol.
<1%
PCD
$642 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.**ADI leads trader consensus for second place at 62.5% implied probability in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, ahead of a broad field of smaller parties priced near 50% and MLSTP–PSD at 14%.**
The July 19 presidential election, in which independent incumbent Carlos Vila Nova secured re-election with MLSTP–PSD backing after his split from ADI, has reshaped party alignments and voter perceptions ahead of the legislative vote. ADI’s candidate Nito Abreu finished second nationally but the party’s governing majority from 2022 faces headwinds from the presidential realignment and record-low turnout patterns. Proportional representation across districts and overseas constituencies favors established parties like ADI and MLSTP–PSD for top finishes, while fragmentation among smaller lists (MCI/PS–PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM and others) keeps their second-place odds dispersed. Traders appear to view ADI as retaining sufficient organizational strength for a strong showing even if first place proves competitive, with limited new polling or campaign developments since the presidential results.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$8,030End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.**ADI leads trader consensus for second place at 62.5% implied probability in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, ahead of a broad field of smaller parties priced near 50% and MLSTP–PSD at 14%.**
The July 19 presidential election, in which independent incumbent Carlos Vila Nova secured re-election with MLSTP–PSD backing after his split from ADI, has reshaped party alignments and voter perceptions ahead of the legislative vote. ADI’s candidate Nito Abreu finished second nationally but the party’s governing majority from 2022 faces headwinds from the presidential realignment and record-low turnout patterns. Proportional representation across districts and overseas constituencies favors established parties like ADI and MLSTP–PSD for top finishes, while fragmentation among smaller lists (MCI/PS–PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM and others) keeps their second-place odds dispersed. Traders appear to view ADI as retaining sufficient organizational strength for a strong showing even if first place proves competitive, with limited new polling or campaign developments since the presidential results.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$8,030End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**ADI leads trader consensus for second place at 62.5% implied probability in the September 27, 2026, parliamentary election, ahead of a broad field of smaller parties priced near 50% and MLSTP–PSD at 14%.** The July 19 presidential election, in which independent incumbent Carlos Vila Nova secured re-election with MLSTP–PSD backing after his split from ADI, has reshaped party alignments and voter perceptions ahead of the legislative vote. ADI’s candidate Nito Abreu finished second nationally but the party’s governing majority from 2022 faces headwinds from the presidential realignment and record-low turnout patterns. Proportional representation across districts and overseas constituencies favors established parties like ADI and MLSTP–PSD for top finishes, while fragmentation among smaller lists (MCI/PS–PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM and others) keeps their second-place odds dispersed. Traders appear to view ADI as retaining sufficient organizational strength for a strong showing even if first place proves competitive, with limited new polling or campaign developments since the presidential results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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