Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and cloud cover over Luzon, including Metro Manila, are the main driver keeping trader focus on mid-20s °C minimums for August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and model runs indicate continued occasional to moderate rains through the weekend, with high humidity and strong southwesterly winds limiting radiational cooling at night. Recent observations show overnight lows near 26 °C amid similar conditions, consistent with climatological August norms of 25–27 °C. This supports clustered market-implied odds around 24–28 °C while capping the probability of sub-22 °C readings, as thick cloud decks suppress the clear-sky cooling needed for sharper drops. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model cycles on August 29–30 will refine exact thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 30?
21°C or below 54%
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
54%
22°C
42%
23°C
47%
24°C
49%
25°C
50%
26°C
28%
27°C
29%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
20%
31°C or higher
2%
21°C or below 54%
25°C 50%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
54%
22°C
$0 Vol.
42%
23°C
$0 Vol.
47%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
29%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
20%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and cloud cover over Luzon, including Metro Manila, are the main driver keeping trader focus on mid-20s °C minimums for August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and model runs indicate continued occasional to moderate rains through the weekend, with high humidity and strong southwesterly winds limiting radiational cooling at night. Recent observations show overnight lows near 26 °C amid similar conditions, consistent with climatological August norms of 25–27 °C. This supports clustered market-implied odds around 24–28 °C while capping the probability of sub-22 °C readings, as thick cloud decks suppress the clear-sky cooling needed for sharper drops. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model cycles on August 29–30 will refine exact thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and cloud cover over Luzon, including Metro Manila, are the main driver keeping trader focus on mid-20s °C minimums for August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and model runs indicate continued occasional to moderate rains through the weekend, with high humidity and strong southwesterly winds limiting radiational cooling at night. Recent observations show overnight lows near 26 °C amid similar conditions, consistent with climatological August norms of 25–27 °C. This supports clustered market-implied odds around 24–28 °C while capping the probability of sub-22 °C readings, as thick cloud decks suppress the clear-sky cooling needed for sharper drops. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model cycles on August 29–30 will refine exact thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) rains and cloud cover over Luzon, including Metro Manila, are the main driver keeping trader focus on mid-20s °C minimums for August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and model runs indicate continued occasional to moderate rains through the weekend, with high humidity and strong southwesterly winds limiting radiational cooling at night. Recent observations show overnight lows near 26 °C amid similar conditions, consistent with climatological August norms of 25–27 °C. This supports clustered market-implied odds around 24–28 °C while capping the probability of sub-22 °C readings, as thick cloud decks suppress the clear-sky cooling needed for sharper drops. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model cycles on August 29–30 will refine exact thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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