**Trader consensus has locked in 30°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 26, 2026, reflecting alignment between real-time AEMET observations, model consensus, and late-day readings near the city’s main stations.** Forecasts from sources including AEMET and Infobae projected a daytime maximum of 29°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 15–17 km/h, and negligible precipitation, consistent with the long-term average high of 30.9°C for the date but tempered by increased cloud cover and mixing. With the day concluding and hourly data showing peaks around 27–29°C at stations such as Retiro and Barajas, the market-implied odds capture the precise threshold resolution. Only an unexpected revision in official post-processing or station-specific microclimate data would realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$77,383 Vol.
$77,383 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$77,383 Vol.
$77,383 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
$737 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,116 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,279 Vol.
No
28°C
$11,933 Vol.
No
29°C
$14,854 Vol.
No
30°C
$22,216 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$11,478 Vol.
No
32°C
$7,537 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,436 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,266 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$531 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has locked in 30°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 26, 2026, reflecting alignment between real-time AEMET observations, model consensus, and late-day readings near the city’s main stations.** Forecasts from sources including AEMET and Infobae projected a daytime maximum of 29°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 15–17 km/h, and negligible precipitation, consistent with the long-term average high of 30.9°C for the date but tempered by increased cloud cover and mixing. With the day concluding and hourly data showing peaks around 27–29°C at stations such as Retiro and Barajas, the market-implied odds capture the precise threshold resolution. Only an unexpected revision in official post-processing or station-specific microclimate data would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$77,383End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has locked in 30°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 26, 2026, reflecting alignment between real-time AEMET observations, model consensus, and late-day readings near the city’s main stations.** Forecasts from sources including AEMET and Infobae projected a daytime maximum of 29°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 15–17 km/h, and negligible precipitation, consistent with the long-term average high of 30.9°C for the date but tempered by increased cloud cover and mixing. With the day concluding and hourly data showing peaks around 27–29°C at stations such as Retiro and Barajas, the market-implied odds capture the precise threshold resolution. Only an unexpected revision in official post-processing or station-specific microclimate data would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$77,383End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Trader consensus has locked in 30°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 26, 2026, reflecting alignment between real-time AEMET observations, model consensus, and late-day readings near the city’s main stations.** Forecasts from sources including AEMET and Infobae projected a daytime maximum of 29°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 15–17 km/h, and negligible precipitation, consistent with the long-term average high of 30.9°C for the date but tempered by increased cloud cover and mixing. With the day concluding and hourly data showing peaks around 27–29°C at stations such as Retiro and Barajas, the market-implied odds capture the precise threshold resolution. Only an unexpected revision in official post-processing or station-specific microclimate data would realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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