The military junta that seized power in Guinea-Bissau’s November 2025 coup controls the referendum process and has already secured National Transition Council approval for the draft constitution. The text, scheduled for a binding vote on 30 August 2026, would shift the country from a semi-presidential to a presidential system, granting the head of state authority to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament during crises, and reduce parliamentary seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have denounced the process as irregular and illegal under existing referendum law, calling for boycotts, yet the Supreme Court issued a favorable opinion and the transitional authorities continue preparations without interruption. Trader consensus at 99 percent for passage reflects the junta’s institutional dominance and the limited scope for organized resistance to alter the outcome in the final hours. Credible challenges would require an unexpectedly effective boycott that invalidates the vote or an unforeseen last-minute court intervention, neither of which has materialized in recent reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPasses 99.0%
Fails <1%
No Referendum in 2026 <1%
$11,090 Vol.
$11,090 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
99%
Fails
1%
No Referendum in 2026
1%
Passes 99.0%
Fails <1%
No Referendum in 2026 <1%
$11,090 Vol.
$11,090 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
$7,214 Vol.
99%
Fails
$1,896 Vol.
1%
No Referendum in 2026
$1,980 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).The military junta that seized power in Guinea-Bissau’s November 2025 coup controls the referendum process and has already secured National Transition Council approval for the draft constitution. The text, scheduled for a binding vote on 30 August 2026, would shift the country from a semi-presidential to a presidential system, granting the head of state authority to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament during crises, and reduce parliamentary seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have denounced the process as irregular and illegal under existing referendum law, calling for boycotts, yet the Supreme Court issued a favorable opinion and the transitional authorities continue preparations without interruption. Trader consensus at 99 percent for passage reflects the junta’s institutional dominance and the limited scope for organized resistance to alter the outcome in the final hours. Credible challenges would require an unexpectedly effective boycott that invalidates the vote or an unforeseen last-minute court intervention, neither of which has materialized in recent reporting.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volume
$11,090End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).The military junta that seized power in Guinea-Bissau’s November 2025 coup controls the referendum process and has already secured National Transition Council approval for the draft constitution. The text, scheduled for a binding vote on 30 August 2026, would shift the country from a semi-presidential to a presidential system, granting the head of state authority to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament during crises, and reduce parliamentary seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have denounced the process as irregular and illegal under existing referendum law, calling for boycotts, yet the Supreme Court issued a favorable opinion and the transitional authorities continue preparations without interruption. Trader consensus at 99 percent for passage reflects the junta’s institutional dominance and the limited scope for organized resistance to alter the outcome in the final hours. Credible challenges would require an unexpectedly effective boycott that invalidates the vote or an unforeseen last-minute court intervention, neither of which has materialized in recent reporting.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Volume
$11,090End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The military junta that seized power in Guinea-Bissau’s November 2025 coup controls the referendum process and has already secured National Transition Council approval for the draft constitution. The text, scheduled for a binding vote on 30 August 2026, would shift the country from a semi-presidential to a presidential system, granting the head of state authority to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament during crises, and reduce parliamentary seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have denounced the process as irregular and illegal under existing referendum law, calling for boycotts, yet the Supreme Court issued a favorable opinion and the transitional authorities continue preparations without interruption. Trader consensus at 99 percent for passage reflects the junta’s institutional dominance and the limited scope for organized resistance to alter the outcome in the final hours. Credible challenges would require an unexpectedly effective boycott that invalidates the vote or an unforeseen last-minute court intervention, neither of which has materialized in recent reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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