**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups like the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and Silicon Valley billionaires has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot.** The measure, sponsored by SEIU-UHW to offset federal healthcare cuts with projected $100 billion in revenue, qualified in June 2026 after signature verification but faced failed compromise talks. Opponents, including Sergey Brin-backed efforts spending over $90 million, have promoted counter-initiatives designed to nullify or constrain the tax if voters approve it. Analyses highlight risks of billionaire out-migration eroding future income tax revenue, while early polling showed only modest initial support that historically weakens under heavy opposition spending. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on the measure’s low passage odds amid California’s direct democracy process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$3,686,747 Vol.
$3,686,747 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
29% chance
$3,686,747 Vol.
$3,686,747 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups like the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and Silicon Valley billionaires has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot.** The measure, sponsored by SEIU-UHW to offset federal healthcare cuts with projected $100 billion in revenue, qualified in June 2026 after signature verification but faced failed compromise talks. Opponents, including Sergey Brin-backed efforts spending over $90 million, have promoted counter-initiatives designed to nullify or constrain the tax if voters approve it. Analyses highlight risks of billionaire out-migration eroding future income tax revenue, while early polling showed only modest initial support that historically weakens under heavy opposition spending. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on the measure’s low passage odds amid California’s direct democracy process.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,686,747End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups like the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and Silicon Valley billionaires has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot.** The measure, sponsored by SEIU-UHW to offset federal healthcare cuts with projected $100 billion in revenue, qualified in June 2026 after signature verification but faced failed compromise talks. Opponents, including Sergey Brin-backed efforts spending over $90 million, have promoted counter-initiatives designed to nullify or constrain the tax if voters approve it. Analyses highlight risks of billionaire out-migration eroding future income tax revenue, while early polling showed only modest initial support that historically weakens under heavy opposition spending. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on the measure’s low passage odds amid California’s direct democracy process.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,686,747End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups like the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and Silicon Valley billionaires has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot.** The measure, sponsored by SEIU-UHW to offset federal healthcare cuts with projected $100 billion in revenue, qualified in June 2026 after signature verification but faced failed compromise talks. Opponents, including Sergey Brin-backed efforts spending over $90 million, have promoted counter-initiatives designed to nullify or constrain the tax if voters approve it. Analyses highlight risks of billionaire out-migration eroding future income tax revenue, while early polling showed only modest initial support that historically weakens under heavy opposition spending. These dynamics reflect trader consensus on the measure’s low passage odds amid California’s direct democracy process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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