Skip to main content
icon for Texas Senate Election Winner
Politics·US Election

Texas Senate Election Winner

icon for Texas Senate Election Winner
Politics·US Election

Texas Senate Election Winner

Polymarket

$962,821 Vol.

Polymarket

$962,821 Vol.

icon for James Talarico (D)

James Talarico (D)

$439,147 Vol.

50%

icon for Ken Paxton (R)

Ken Paxton (R)

$523,674 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project and Texas Southern University shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the November 3 general election, consistent with the market's near-even odds. Paxton's May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn consolidated conservative support but left him with lower favorability tied to prior controversies, while Talarico has consolidated independents, women, younger voters, and some Latino support through stronger fundraising and targeted advertising. The race remains tight due to Texas's Republican lean, undecided voters, and regional divides. Developments such as debates, intensified turnout efforts in battleground areas, shifts among independents, or late campaign messaging on costs and border issues could widen the margin before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$962,821
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project and Texas Southern University shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the November 3 general election, consistent with the market's near-even odds. Paxton's May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn consolidated conservative support but left him with lower favorability tied to prior controversies, while Talarico has consolidated independents, women, younger voters, and some Latino support through stronger fundraising and targeted advertising. The race remains tight due to Texas's Republican lean, undecided voters, and regional divides. Developments such as debates, intensified turnout efforts in battleground areas, shifts among independents, or late campaign messaging on costs and border issues could widen the margin before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$962,821
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Related

icon for Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

93%
icon for Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

92%
icon for Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

92%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Texas Senate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "James Talarico (D)" at 50%, followed by "Ken Paxton (R)" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Texas Senate Election Winner" has generated $962.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Texas Senate Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Texas Senate Election Winner" is "James Talarico (D)" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ken Paxton (R)" at 49%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Texas Senate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.