Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig in the August primary, positioning her as the clear frontrunner in a state that has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002. Recent polling shows her leading Republican nominee Michele Tafoya by margins of roughly 5 to 8 points, consistent with the state's Democratic lean reflected in the 2024 presidential results and longstanding voting patterns. Tafoya won her primary but enters the general election with lower statewide name recognition and limited prior elected experience. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Flanagan reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major disruptive events since the primaries. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, significant campaign finance imbalances, or unforeseen national political developments could narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$56,297 Vol.
$56,297 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
91%
Michele Tafoya (R)
9%
$56,297 Vol.
$56,297 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
$38,954 Vol.
91%
Michele Tafoya (R)
$17,343 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig in the August primary, positioning her as the clear frontrunner in a state that has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002. Recent polling shows her leading Republican nominee Michele Tafoya by margins of roughly 5 to 8 points, consistent with the state's Democratic lean reflected in the 2024 presidential results and longstanding voting patterns. Tafoya won her primary but enters the general election with lower statewide name recognition and limited prior elected experience. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Flanagan reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major disruptive events since the primaries. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, significant campaign finance imbalances, or unforeseen national political developments could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$56,297End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig in the August primary, positioning her as the clear frontrunner in a state that has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002. Recent polling shows her leading Republican nominee Michele Tafoya by margins of roughly 5 to 8 points, consistent with the state's Democratic lean reflected in the 2024 presidential results and longstanding voting patterns. Tafoya won her primary but enters the general election with lower statewide name recognition and limited prior elected experience. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Flanagan reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major disruptive events since the primaries. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, significant campaign finance imbalances, or unforeseen national political developments could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$56,297End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig in the August primary, positioning her as the clear frontrunner in a state that has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002. Recent polling shows her leading Republican nominee Michele Tafoya by margins of roughly 5 to 8 points, consistent with the state's Democratic lean reflected in the 2024 presidential results and longstanding voting patterns. Tafoya won her primary but enters the general election with lower statewide name recognition and limited prior elected experience. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Flanagan reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major disruptive events since the primaries. Late developments such as unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, significant campaign finance imbalances, or unforeseen national political developments could narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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