**Recent polling shows KD (Kristdemokraterna) support fluctuating around or above the 6% threshold ahead of the September 13, 2026, Swedish parliamentary election.** A Demoskop survey (mid-to-late August) recorded KD at a seven-year high of 8.5%, marking four consecutive months of gains and the strongest result in that period. Other late-August polls placed the party at 5.8–6.7%, contributing to a polling average near 6.7%. These figures underpin the 60.5% implied probability on the Over side, reflecting trader assessment of KD’s current trajectory. KD, part of the Tidö government bloc alongside Moderates and Liberals (with Sweden Democrats support), has benefited from targeted messaging under leader Ebba Busch. Emphasis on family policy, women’s healthcare improvements, state responsibility for care (including abolishing regional structures), nuclear power investments, and a “right with heart” positioning has drawn modest support, including from some Moderate voters. No major adverse events have disrupted this momentum in recent weeks, though overall bloc polling remains competitive with the centre-left opposition holding a narrowing lead. The election’s proximity means late swings in turnout or issue salience—particularly on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy—could still affect smaller parties like KD, which must clear the 4% Riksdag threshold but faces a higher bar for the Over 6% outcome. Current skin-in-the-game pricing incorporates these polling patterns and KD’s incremental upward movement without assuming a decisive breakthrough.