Recent late-August polls for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5–6%, with Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) and Infratest dimap (ARD) both showing 6% and an earlier Pollytix survey at 5%. This narrow positioning above the 5% threshold, after earlier readings hovered near or below it, underpins the 71.5% implied probability for Over. The Greens, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, are emphasizing climate policy, education equity, and strategic second votes to block an AfD majority, a message amplified in final-week campaigning. Polling averages and the short time remaining to election day limit scope for major late swings, though undecided voters (around 10–30% in recent surveys) and turnout among smaller-party supporters remain variables that could still affect the final result relative to the hurdle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
72% chance
$17,162 Vol.
$17,162 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Over
72% chance
$17,162 Vol.
$17,162 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent late-August polls for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5–6%, with Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) and Infratest dimap (ARD) both showing 6% and an earlier Pollytix survey at 5%. This narrow positioning above the 5% threshold, after earlier readings hovered near or below it, underpins the 71.5% implied probability for Over. The Greens, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, are emphasizing climate policy, education equity, and strategic second votes to block an AfD majority, a message amplified in final-week campaigning. Polling averages and the short time remaining to election day limit scope for major late swings, though undecided voters (around 10–30% in recent surveys) and turnout among smaller-party supporters remain variables that could still affect the final result relative to the hurdle.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$17,162End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent late-August polls for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5–6%, with Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) and Infratest dimap (ARD) both showing 6% and an earlier Pollytix survey at 5%. This narrow positioning above the 5% threshold, after earlier readings hovered near or below it, underpins the 71.5% implied probability for Over. The Greens, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, are emphasizing climate policy, education equity, and strategic second votes to block an AfD majority, a message amplified in final-week campaigning. Polling averages and the short time remaining to election day limit scope for major late swings, though undecided voters (around 10–30% in recent surveys) and turnout among smaller-party supporters remain variables that could still affect the final result relative to the hurdle.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$17,162End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent late-August polls for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 5–6%, with Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) and Infratest dimap (ARD) both showing 6% and an earlier Pollytix survey at 5%. This narrow positioning above the 5% threshold, after earlier readings hovered near or below it, underpins the 71.5% implied probability for Over. The Greens, led by Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, are emphasizing climate policy, education equity, and strategic second votes to block an AfD majority, a message amplified in final-week campaigning. Polling averages and the short time remaining to election day limit scope for major late swings, though undecided voters (around 10–30% in recent surveys) and turnout among smaller-party supporters remain variables that could still affect the final result relative to the hurdle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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