Recent opinion polls for the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt state election consistently place the BSW between 4% and 5%, including figures of 4% in late July and early August surveys from INSA and pollytix, alongside 5% readings from Infratest dimap. Broader election trends aggregate BSW support near 4.3%, well below the 5% second-vote threshold required for Landtag entry under the Hare/Niemeyer allocation rules. Tactical voting initiatives urging support for the SPD and Greens—while explicitly excluding the BSW—have gained attention in the final weeks, reflecting concerns over smaller parties fragmenting the vote and benefiting larger blocs. With the AfD polling above 42% and the CDU near 23%, the BSW's position shows no recent upward momentum sufficient to shift the distribution of undecided or strategic voters before election day. These patterns align with the current trader consensus favoring an outcome under 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
23% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Over
23% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent opinion polls for the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt state election consistently place the BSW between 4% and 5%, including figures of 4% in late July and early August surveys from INSA and pollytix, alongside 5% readings from Infratest dimap. Broader election trends aggregate BSW support near 4.3%, well below the 5% second-vote threshold required for Landtag entry under the Hare/Niemeyer allocation rules.
Tactical voting initiatives urging support for the SPD and Greens—while explicitly excluding the BSW—have gained attention in the final weeks, reflecting concerns over smaller parties fragmenting the vote and benefiting larger blocs. With the AfD polling above 42% and the CDU near 23%, the BSW's position shows no recent upward momentum sufficient to shift the distribution of undecided or strategic voters before election day. These patterns align with the current trader consensus favoring an outcome under 5%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$225End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent opinion polls for the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt state election consistently place the BSW between 4% and 5%, including figures of 4% in late July and early August surveys from INSA and pollytix, alongside 5% readings from Infratest dimap. Broader election trends aggregate BSW support near 4.3%, well below the 5% second-vote threshold required for Landtag entry under the Hare/Niemeyer allocation rules.
Tactical voting initiatives urging support for the SPD and Greens—while explicitly excluding the BSW—have gained attention in the final weeks, reflecting concerns over smaller parties fragmenting the vote and benefiting larger blocs. With the AfD polling above 42% and the CDU near 23%, the BSW's position shows no recent upward momentum sufficient to shift the distribution of undecided or strategic voters before election day. These patterns align with the current trader consensus favoring an outcome under 5%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$225End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls for the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt state election consistently place the BSW between 4% and 5%, including figures of 4% in late July and early August surveys from INSA and pollytix, alongside 5% readings from Infratest dimap. Broader election trends aggregate BSW support near 4.3%, well below the 5% second-vote threshold required for Landtag entry under the Hare/Niemeyer allocation rules. Tactical voting initiatives urging support for the SPD and Greens—while explicitly excluding the BSW—have gained attention in the final weeks, reflecting concerns over smaller parties fragmenting the vote and benefiting larger blocs. With the AfD polling above 42% and the CDU near 23%, the BSW's position shows no recent upward momentum sufficient to shift the distribution of undecided or strategic voters before election day. These patterns align with the current trader consensus favoring an outcome under 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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