Recent polling averages place AfD support in Sachsen-Anhalt at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, with the most recent surveys from pollytix and INSA showing 42–43 percent. This positioning, well ahead of the CDU near 23 percent and smaller parties clustered around or below the 5 percent threshold, supports trader consensus favoring an outcome above 42 percent. Consistent results across multiple institutes over the past month reflect stable voter preferences in the eastern state, with limited movement in the final weeks before voting. The market’s implied probability for the Over reflects this narrow but sustained edge in current data, though final turnout and minor-party performance could still shift the result on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
66% chance
$10,071 Vol.
$10,071 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Over
66% chance
$10,071 Vol.
$10,071 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place AfD support in Sachsen-Anhalt at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, with the most recent surveys from pollytix and INSA showing 42–43 percent. This positioning, well ahead of the CDU near 23 percent and smaller parties clustered around or below the 5 percent threshold, supports trader consensus favoring an outcome above 42 percent. Consistent results across multiple institutes over the past month reflect stable voter preferences in the eastern state, with limited movement in the final weeks before voting. The market’s implied probability for the Over reflects this narrow but sustained edge in current data, though final turnout and minor-party performance could still shift the result on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$10,071End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place AfD support in Sachsen-Anhalt at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, with the most recent surveys from pollytix and INSA showing 42–43 percent. This positioning, well ahead of the CDU near 23 percent and smaller parties clustered around or below the 5 percent threshold, supports trader consensus favoring an outcome above 42 percent. Consistent results across multiple institutes over the past month reflect stable voter preferences in the eastern state, with limited movement in the final weeks before voting. The market’s implied probability for the Over reflects this narrow but sustained edge in current data, though final turnout and minor-party performance could still shift the result on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$10,071End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place AfD support in Sachsen-Anhalt at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, with the most recent surveys from pollytix and INSA showing 42–43 percent. This positioning, well ahead of the CDU near 23 percent and smaller parties clustered around or below the 5 percent threshold, supports trader consensus favoring an outcome above 42 percent. Consistent results across multiple institutes over the past month reflect stable voter preferences in the eastern state, with limited movement in the final weeks before voting. The market’s implied probability for the Over reflects this narrow but sustained edge in current data, though final turnout and minor-party performance could still shift the result on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions