**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election places Die Linke at or near 11%, supporting the market's modest tilt toward the Under outcome at 58.5% implied probability.** The latest INSA survey (August 4–11) shows Linke at 11%, while the prior Infratest dimap poll (July 2–6) had the party at 12%. Earlier 2026 readings have fluctuated in a narrow 10–13% band without sustained upward movement. As the junior partner in the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, Linke has focused its campaign on social policy continuity and regional priorities but has not generated additional momentum amid the dominant AfD–SPD contest (AfD ~36%, SPD ~29%). The party remains competitive for third place ahead of the CDU, yet faces pressure from smaller parties near the 5% threshold and limited volatility in voter sentiment. With the election roughly one month away, traders appear to view the current polling baseline as favoring a result at or below 11% unless late-campaign shifts occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
42% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
42% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election places Die Linke at or near 11%, supporting the market's modest tilt toward the Under outcome at 58.5% implied probability.**
The latest INSA survey (August 4–11) shows Linke at 11%, while the prior Infratest dimap poll (July 2–6) had the party at 12%. Earlier 2026 readings have fluctuated in a narrow 10–13% band without sustained upward movement. As the junior partner in the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, Linke has focused its campaign on social policy continuity and regional priorities but has not generated additional momentum amid the dominant AfD–SPD contest (AfD ~36%, SPD ~29%).
The party remains competitive for third place ahead of the CDU, yet faces pressure from smaller parties near the 5% threshold and limited volatility in voter sentiment. With the election roughly one month away, traders appear to view the current polling baseline as favoring a result at or below 11% unless late-campaign shifts occur.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$743End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election places Die Linke at or near 11%, supporting the market's modest tilt toward the Under outcome at 58.5% implied probability.**
The latest INSA survey (August 4–11) shows Linke at 11%, while the prior Infratest dimap poll (July 2–6) had the party at 12%. Earlier 2026 readings have fluctuated in a narrow 10–13% band without sustained upward movement. As the junior partner in the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, Linke has focused its campaign on social policy continuity and regional priorities but has not generated additional momentum amid the dominant AfD–SPD contest (AfD ~36%, SPD ~29%).
The party remains competitive for third place ahead of the CDU, yet faces pressure from smaller parties near the 5% threshold and limited volatility in voter sentiment. With the election roughly one month away, traders appear to view the current polling baseline as favoring a result at or below 11% unless late-campaign shifts occur.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$743End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election places Die Linke at or near 11%, supporting the market's modest tilt toward the Under outcome at 58.5% implied probability.** The latest INSA survey (August 4–11) shows Linke at 11%, while the prior Infratest dimap poll (July 2–6) had the party at 12%. Earlier 2026 readings have fluctuated in a narrow 10–13% band without sustained upward movement. As the junior partner in the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, Linke has focused its campaign on social policy continuity and regional priorities but has not generated additional momentum amid the dominant AfD–SPD contest (AfD ~36%, SPD ~29%). The party remains competitive for third place ahead of the CDU, yet faces pressure from smaller parties near the 5% threshold and limited volatility in voter sentiment. With the election roughly one month away, traders appear to view the current polling baseline as favoring a result at or below 11% unless late-campaign shifts occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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