Recent polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election show the SPD stabilizing near or above 28-29 percent after earlier declines. INSA’s mid-August survey and Infratest dimap’s July poll both placed the party at 29 percent, reflecting modest gains of one to two points since spring. These figures sit above the 28 percent threshold and contribute to the current trader consensus favoring the Over outcome. Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s SPD has emphasized an Aufholjagd against the leading AfD, while the broader polling average hovers around 28.9 percent. With the vote three weeks away and no major late shifts reported, skin-in-the-game pricing incorporates the latest survey stability and the party’s incremental recovery in voter intention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
75% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
75% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election show the SPD stabilizing near or above 28-29 percent after earlier declines. INSA’s mid-August survey and Infratest dimap’s July poll both placed the party at 29 percent, reflecting modest gains of one to two points since spring. These figures sit above the 28 percent threshold and contribute to the current trader consensus favoring the Over outcome. Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s SPD has emphasized an Aufholjagd against the leading AfD, while the broader polling average hovers around 28.9 percent. With the vote three weeks away and no major late shifts reported, skin-in-the-game pricing incorporates the latest survey stability and the party’s incremental recovery in voter intention.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$3,182End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election show the SPD stabilizing near or above 28-29 percent after earlier declines. INSA’s mid-August survey and Infratest dimap’s July poll both placed the party at 29 percent, reflecting modest gains of one to two points since spring. These figures sit above the 28 percent threshold and contribute to the current trader consensus favoring the Over outcome. Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s SPD has emphasized an Aufholjagd against the leading AfD, while the broader polling average hovers around 28.9 percent. With the vote three weeks away and no major late shifts reported, skin-in-the-game pricing incorporates the latest survey stability and the party’s incremental recovery in voter intention.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$3,182End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election show the SPD stabilizing near or above 28-29 percent after earlier declines. INSA’s mid-August survey and Infratest dimap’s July poll both placed the party at 29 percent, reflecting modest gains of one to two points since spring. These figures sit above the 28 percent threshold and contribute to the current trader consensus favoring the Over outcome. Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s SPD has emphasized an Aufholjagd against the leading AfD, while the broader polling average hovers around 28.9 percent. With the vote three weeks away and no major late shifts reported, skin-in-the-game pricing incorporates the latest survey stability and the party’s incremental recovery in voter intention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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