The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026 features incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig leading the SPD against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, with the SPD currently governing in coalition with Die Linke. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys place the SPD at 29 percent, up roughly 10 points from late 2025 lows yet still trailing the AfD at 35–36 percent; this recovery reflects Schwesig’s stronger personal approval ratings and campaign focus on a “democratic” coalition alternative, while AfD support has eased only marginally. The SPD’s path to 31 percent or higher depends on late-campaign turnout among its base and whether smaller parties such as the Greens or BSW clear the 5 percent threshold, narrowing the main contenders’ shares. Conversely, continued AfD momentum or higher protest voting could compress the SPD below 28 percent. With three weeks remaining, the market’s clustering around the 25–31 percent range reflects these narrow polling margins and the limited time for further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31%+ 39%
25-28% 32%
28-31% 21%
<25% 11%
$10,696 Vol.
$10,696 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<25%
11%
25-28%
32%
28-31%
21%
31%+
39%
31%+ 39%
25-28% 32%
28-31% 21%
<25% 11%
$10,696 Vol.
$10,696 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<25%
$2,503 Vol.
11%
25-28%
$2,760 Vol.
32%
28-31%
$804 Vol.
21%
31%+
$4,630 Vol.
39%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026 features incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig leading the SPD against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, with the SPD currently governing in coalition with Die Linke. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys place the SPD at 29 percent, up roughly 10 points from late 2025 lows yet still trailing the AfD at 35–36 percent; this recovery reflects Schwesig’s stronger personal approval ratings and campaign focus on a “democratic” coalition alternative, while AfD support has eased only marginally. The SPD’s path to 31 percent or higher depends on late-campaign turnout among its base and whether smaller parties such as the Greens or BSW clear the 5 percent threshold, narrowing the main contenders’ shares. Conversely, continued AfD momentum or higher protest voting could compress the SPD below 28 percent. With three weeks remaining, the market’s clustering around the 25–31 percent range reflects these narrow polling margins and the limited time for further shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$10,696End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026 features incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig leading the SPD against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, with the SPD currently governing in coalition with Die Linke. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys place the SPD at 29 percent, up roughly 10 points from late 2025 lows yet still trailing the AfD at 35–36 percent; this recovery reflects Schwesig’s stronger personal approval ratings and campaign focus on a “democratic” coalition alternative, while AfD support has eased only marginally. The SPD’s path to 31 percent or higher depends on late-campaign turnout among its base and whether smaller parties such as the Greens or BSW clear the 5 percent threshold, narrowing the main contenders’ shares. Conversely, continued AfD momentum or higher protest voting could compress the SPD below 28 percent. With three weeks remaining, the market’s clustering around the 25–31 percent range reflects these narrow polling margins and the limited time for further shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$10,696End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026 features incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig leading the SPD against AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm, with the SPD currently governing in coalition with Die Linke. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys place the SPD at 29 percent, up roughly 10 points from late 2025 lows yet still trailing the AfD at 35–36 percent; this recovery reflects Schwesig’s stronger personal approval ratings and campaign focus on a “democratic” coalition alternative, while AfD support has eased only marginally. The SPD’s path to 31 percent or higher depends on late-campaign turnout among its base and whether smaller parties such as the Greens or BSW clear the 5 percent threshold, narrowing the main contenders’ shares. Conversely, continued AfD momentum or higher protest voting could compress the SPD below 28 percent. With three weeks remaining, the market’s clustering around the 25–31 percent range reflects these narrow polling margins and the limited time for further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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