**Friedrich Merz’s position as German chancellor appears stable through the end of 2026, supporting the 83.5% implied probability that he will not leave office before 2027.** He took office in May 2025 heading a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition and has focused on economic reforms, growth measures, and modernization despite historically low approval ratings (satisfaction near 13-17% and personal sympathy at record negatives). A July 2026 surrogacy scandal triggered the resignation of parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn, internal CDU discontent, and a cabinet reshuffle that installed allies such as Thorsten Frei and Nina Warken while aiming to reset momentum ahead of September state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin. Post-summer-pause developments show Merz reconvening the CDU presidium and launching a government klausur on competitiveness, innovation, and related policy, with no active no-confidence motion, coalition fracture, or snap-election trigger. While public polls indicate many Germans anticipate a change before 2029 and AfD leads national surveys, the absence of immediate procedural or electoral mechanisms for removal before year-end underpins trader expectations of continuity. Upcoming September results could intensify pressure, yet current coalition dynamics and reform timelines point to Merz remaining in office through 2026.