Traders assign a 96.7% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations outside of extreme circumstances such as the Watergate scandal. With Trump serving his term amid ongoing legislative priorities, cabinet confirmations, and party dynamics, no verified developments signal imminent departure. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets incorporates these structural barriers, including institutional incentives to complete the term and limited precedent for voluntary exits. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity, major legal developments triggering bipartisan pressure, or unforeseen personal factors, though each remains low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$23,419 Vol.
$23,419 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$23,419 Vol.
$23,419 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.7% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations outside of extreme circumstances such as the Watergate scandal. With Trump serving his term amid ongoing legislative priorities, cabinet confirmations, and party dynamics, no verified developments signal imminent departure. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets incorporates these structural barriers, including institutional incentives to complete the term and limited precedent for voluntary exits. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity, major legal developments triggering bipartisan pressure, or unforeseen personal factors, though each remains low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$23,419End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.7% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations outside of extreme circumstances such as the Watergate scandal. With Trump serving his term amid ongoing legislative priorities, cabinet confirmations, and party dynamics, no verified developments signal imminent departure. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets incorporates these structural barriers, including institutional incentives to complete the term and limited precedent for voluntary exits. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity, major legal developments triggering bipartisan pressure, or unforeseen personal factors, though each remains low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,419End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.7% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations outside of extreme circumstances such as the Watergate scandal. With Trump serving his term amid ongoing legislative priorities, cabinet confirmations, and party dynamics, no verified developments signal imminent departure. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets incorporates these structural barriers, including institutional incentives to complete the term and limited precedent for voluntary exits. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden health events requiring medical incapacity, major legal developments triggering bipartisan pressure, or unforeseen personal factors, though each remains low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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