Trump's continued service through 2026 faces high constitutional barriers to removal, including the need for a House majority and two-thirds Senate vote for impeachment conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment requiring vice presidential and cabinet action followed by congressional override. Republican majorities have so far contained sporadic Democratic impeachment resolutions, with recent efforts withdrawn or tabled ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Persistent questions around the president's health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and cognitive lapses, have prompted medical assessments declaring him fit for duty, while staff turnover and an ongoing Iran conflict have not triggered succession mechanisms. Traders price the low odds of resignation or successful ouster before 2027 on these institutional and political realities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$11,141,680 Vol.
$11,141,680 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$11,141,680 Vol.
$11,141,680 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued service through 2026 faces high constitutional barriers to removal, including the need for a House majority and two-thirds Senate vote for impeachment conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment requiring vice presidential and cabinet action followed by congressional override. Republican majorities have so far contained sporadic Democratic impeachment resolutions, with recent efforts withdrawn or tabled ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Persistent questions around the president's health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and cognitive lapses, have prompted medical assessments declaring him fit for duty, while staff turnover and an ongoing Iran conflict have not triggered succession mechanisms. Traders price the low odds of resignation or successful ouster before 2027 on these institutional and political realities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,141,680End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued service through 2026 faces high constitutional barriers to removal, including the need for a House majority and two-thirds Senate vote for impeachment conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment requiring vice presidential and cabinet action followed by congressional override. Republican majorities have so far contained sporadic Democratic impeachment resolutions, with recent efforts withdrawn or tabled ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Persistent questions around the president's health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and cognitive lapses, have prompted medical assessments declaring him fit for duty, while staff turnover and an ongoing Iran conflict have not triggered succession mechanisms. Traders price the low odds of resignation or successful ouster before 2027 on these institutional and political realities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,141,680End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's continued service through 2026 faces high constitutional barriers to removal, including the need for a House majority and two-thirds Senate vote for impeachment conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment requiring vice presidential and cabinet action followed by congressional override. Republican majorities have so far contained sporadic Democratic impeachment resolutions, with recent efforts withdrawn or tabled ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Persistent questions around the president's health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and cognitive lapses, have prompted medical assessments declaring him fit for duty, while staff turnover and an ongoing Iran conflict have not triggered succession mechanisms. Traders price the low odds of resignation or successful ouster before 2027 on these institutional and political realities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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