The structural barriers of the 25th Amendment—requiring the vice president plus a Cabinet majority or congressional action to declare incapacity—drive the 97% trader consensus against removal before 2027. Appointees aligned with the administration make coordinated invocation politically improbable absent clear incapacity, and no verified health crises or official incapacity proceedings have emerged during the current term. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as the amendment has never been applied involuntarily to a sitting president. Traders price in continuity through the midterms and into 2027 based on these institutional realities. Late developments such as a documented medical emergency triggering Cabinet consensus or bipartisan legislative moves could still shift odds, though such thresholds remain elevated.