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icon for AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
Politics·Europe

AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?

icon for AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
Politics·Europe

AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?

2 80%

3 11.5%

1 10.5%

0 <1%

Polymarket

$62,920 Vol.

2 80%

3 11.5%

1 10.5%

0 <1%

Polymarket

$62,920 Vol.

0

$6,436 Vol.

<1%

1

$14,699 Vol.

10%

2

$24,354 Vol.

80%

3

$17,431 Vol.

12%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polling by wide margins in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of their September 6 and 20 votes, with support near or above 40 percent in recent surveys, positioning the party to secure the largest share of seats in both eastern states under proportional representation and the 5 percent threshold. In Berlin, where the September 20 election also occurs, AfD trails in second place. Sustained national gains for the party and erosion of center-party support have reinforced trader consensus around exactly two September outcomes, though final seat allocations could shift with turnout or smaller-party results below the threshold.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.

This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.

No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.

A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Volume
$62,920
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polling by wide margins in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of their September 6 and 20 votes, with support near or above 40 percent in recent surveys, positioning the party to secure the largest share of seats in both eastern states under proportional representation and the 5 percent threshold. In Berlin, where the September 20 election also occurs, AfD trails in second place. Sustained national gains for the party and erosion of center-party support have reinforced trader consensus around exactly two September outcomes, though final seat allocations could shift with turnout or smaller-party results below the threshold.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.

This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.

No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.

A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Volume
$62,920
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.

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icon for Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2" at 80%, followed by "3" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?" has generated $62.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?" is "2" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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