Recent polling from Datafolha and earlier surveys shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among Júlio César (PSD), Marcelo Castro (MDB), and Ciro Nogueira (PP), with the top names separated by just a few points and large undecided blocs exceeding 60 percent. Júlio César’s stronger positioning in second-preference scenarios helps explain the market’s elevated probability for him in second place. High rejection for Ciro Nogueira, shifting alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and voter strategies for splitting the two votes keep the ordering fluid. Upcoming campaign events, further surveys, and final coalition alignments before October could widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Julio Cesar 37.6%
Marcelo Castro 30%
Ciro Nogueira 19%
Toinho Dufrango 1.0%
$25,677 Vol.
$25,677 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Julio Cesar
38%
Marcelo Castro
30%
Ciro Nogueira
19%
Toinho Dufrango
1%
Alexandre Mariano
1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
1%
Tiago Junqueira
1%
Francinaldo Leão
1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Julio Cesar 37.6%
Marcelo Castro 30%
Ciro Nogueira 19%
Toinho Dufrango 1.0%
$25,677 Vol.
$25,677 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Julio Cesar
$3,558 Vol.
38%
Marcelo Castro
$5,123 Vol.
30%
Ciro Nogueira
$8,452 Vol.
19%
Toinho Dufrango
$505 Vol.
1%
Alexandre Mariano
$495 Vol.
1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
$490 Vol.
1%
Tiago Junqueira
$506 Vol.
1%
Francinaldo Leão
$523 Vol.
1%
Jardenya Bezerra
$505 Vol.
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
$515 Vol.
<1%
Cloves José
$514 Vol.
<1%
Antônio José Lira
$504 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Sena
$502 Vol.
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
$505 Vol.
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
$495 Vol.
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
$489 Vol.
<1%
Antônio Barros
$495 Vol.
<1%
Danniel Rocha
$505 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Lopes
$513 Vol.
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
$483 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and earlier surveys shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among Júlio César (PSD), Marcelo Castro (MDB), and Ciro Nogueira (PP), with the top names separated by just a few points and large undecided blocs exceeding 60 percent. Júlio César’s stronger positioning in second-preference scenarios helps explain the market’s elevated probability for him in second place. High rejection for Ciro Nogueira, shifting alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and voter strategies for splitting the two votes keep the ordering fluid. Upcoming campaign events, further surveys, and final coalition alignments before October could widen gaps among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$25,677End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and earlier surveys shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among Júlio César (PSD), Marcelo Castro (MDB), and Ciro Nogueira (PP), with the top names separated by just a few points and large undecided blocs exceeding 60 percent. Júlio César’s stronger positioning in second-preference scenarios helps explain the market’s elevated probability for him in second place. High rejection for Ciro Nogueira, shifting alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and voter strategies for splitting the two votes keep the ordering fluid. Upcoming campaign events, further surveys, and final coalition alignments before October could widen gaps among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,677End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha and earlier surveys shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among Júlio César (PSD), Marcelo Castro (MDB), and Ciro Nogueira (PP), with the top names separated by just a few points and large undecided blocs exceeding 60 percent. Júlio César’s stronger positioning in second-preference scenarios helps explain the market’s elevated probability for him in second place. High rejection for Ciro Nogueira, shifting alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and voter strategies for splitting the two votes keep the ordering fluid. Upcoming campaign events, further surveys, and final coalition alignments before October could widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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