**Recent opinion polls place the CDU at or slightly below 23% in the run-up to the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, supporting the market's modest lean toward "Under."** The latest surveys show the CDU at 22–23% (Infratest dimap/ARD at 22% on 24–25 August; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF at 23% on 25–27 August), consistent with earlier August readings around the same level. This marks continued erosion from the party's 37.1% result in 2021, amid an AfD surge to 40–42%. Other parties trail further behind, with the Left at 11–13%, SPD at 7–9%, and Greens at 5–6%, while smaller groups like the FDP and BSW remain below the 5% threshold in most projections. The CDU's positioning reflects stable late-campaign dynamics rather than sudden shifts, with roughly 11–31% of voters still undecided across polls. Incumbent Minister President Sven Schulze retains stronger personal ratings than AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund in head-to-head matchups, yet this has not translated into broader CDU recovery. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling trends and historical vote erosion more heavily than potential last-minute movements in a race where the CDU has shown limited upward volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
44% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Over
44% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent opinion polls place the CDU at or slightly below 23% in the run-up to the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, supporting the market's modest lean toward "Under."**
The latest surveys show the CDU at 22–23% (Infratest dimap/ARD at 22% on 24–25 August; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF at 23% on 25–27 August), consistent with earlier August readings around the same level. This marks continued erosion from the party's 37.1% result in 2021, amid an AfD surge to 40–42%. Other parties trail further behind, with the Left at 11–13%, SPD at 7–9%, and Greens at 5–6%, while smaller groups like the FDP and BSW remain below the 5% threshold in most projections.
The CDU's positioning reflects stable late-campaign dynamics rather than sudden shifts, with roughly 11–31% of voters still undecided across polls. Incumbent Minister President Sven Schulze retains stronger personal ratings than AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund in head-to-head matchups, yet this has not translated into broader CDU recovery. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling trends and historical vote erosion more heavily than potential last-minute movements in a race where the CDU has shown limited upward volatility.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$3,517End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent opinion polls place the CDU at or slightly below 23% in the run-up to the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, supporting the market's modest lean toward "Under."**
The latest surveys show the CDU at 22–23% (Infratest dimap/ARD at 22% on 24–25 August; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF at 23% on 25–27 August), consistent with earlier August readings around the same level. This marks continued erosion from the party's 37.1% result in 2021, amid an AfD surge to 40–42%. Other parties trail further behind, with the Left at 11–13%, SPD at 7–9%, and Greens at 5–6%, while smaller groups like the FDP and BSW remain below the 5% threshold in most projections.
The CDU's positioning reflects stable late-campaign dynamics rather than sudden shifts, with roughly 11–31% of voters still undecided across polls. Incumbent Minister President Sven Schulze retains stronger personal ratings than AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund in head-to-head matchups, yet this has not translated into broader CDU recovery. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling trends and historical vote erosion more heavily than potential last-minute movements in a race where the CDU has shown limited upward volatility.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$3,517End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent opinion polls place the CDU at or slightly below 23% in the run-up to the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, supporting the market's modest lean toward "Under."** The latest surveys show the CDU at 22–23% (Infratest dimap/ARD at 22% on 24–25 August; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF at 23% on 25–27 August), consistent with earlier August readings around the same level. This marks continued erosion from the party's 37.1% result in 2021, amid an AfD surge to 40–42%. Other parties trail further behind, with the Left at 11–13%, SPD at 7–9%, and Greens at 5–6%, while smaller groups like the FDP and BSW remain below the 5% threshold in most projections. The CDU's positioning reflects stable late-campaign dynamics rather than sudden shifts, with roughly 11–31% of voters still undecided across polls. Incumbent Minister President Sven Schulze retains stronger personal ratings than AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund in head-to-head matchups, yet this has not translated into broader CDU recovery. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling trends and historical vote erosion more heavily than potential last-minute movements in a race where the CDU has shown limited upward volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions