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icon for Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?
World·Germany

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?

icon for Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?
World·Germany

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?

Over

44% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Over

44% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls place the CDU at 22-23% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 state election, with AfD support at 40-42% and significant shares of undecided voters. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in late August show the CDU losing ground since July amid the AfD's sustained lead and the CDU's firewall against coalitions with the AfD or Left party. Minister President Sven Schulze retains stronger personal ratings than AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund, yet party-level support remains under pressure from fragmentation among other parties that could enter the Landtag. This tight positioning around the 23% threshold underpins trader consensus on the under side, with final campaign dynamics and turnout among undecided voters as key variables.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$3,517
End Date
Sep 6, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls place the CDU at 22-23% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 state election, with AfD support at 40-42% and significant shares of undecided voters. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in late August show the CDU losing ground since July amid the AfD's sustained lead and the CDU's firewall against coalitions with the AfD or Left party. Minister President Sven Schulze retains stronger personal ratings than AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund, yet party-level support remains under pressure from fragmentation among other parties that could enter the Landtag. This tight positioning around the 23% threshold underpins trader consensus on the under side, with final campaign dynamics and turnout among undecided voters as key variables.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$3,517
End Date
Sep 6, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?" is "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.