Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,806 Vol.
$12,806 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,806 Vol.
$12,806 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$1,056 Vol.
No
23°C
$591 Vol.
No
24°C
$841 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,015 Vol.
No
26°C
$775 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,849 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,705 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$864 Vol.
No
30°C
$139 Vol.
No
31°C
$647 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,322 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$12,806End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,806End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Traders assign near-certainty to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 26 because official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time observations show nighttime temperatures stabilizing at this level under clear, humid summer conditions with minimal advection from cooler marine air. Ensemble models exhibit tight agreement on the diurnal minimum, consistent with typical late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and light winds prevent further cooling. The sole realistic scenarios that could alter the outcome involve an unforeseen late-day frontal passage or localized station measurement variance, both of which current guidance and historical analogs indicate are highly unlikely before official resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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