Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shenzhen’s lowest temperature on August 30 stems from short-range forecast model spread in a subtropical monsoon environment, where nighttime radiative cooling is sensitive to cloud cover, humidity, and light wind. Typical late-August minimums hover near 26°C based on climatological baselines, yet recent variable moisture and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance cooling by 1–2°C. With leading outcomes within 9 percentage points, the market reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble guidance rather than a single dominant signal, and updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours are expected to sharpen the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30?
33°C or higher 47%
26°C 42%
27°C 34%
25°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
7%
24°C
24%
25°C
32%
26°C
42%
27°C
34%
28°C
26%
29°C
24%
30°C
24%
31°C
2%
32°C
14%
33°C or higher
47%
33°C or higher 47%
26°C 42%
27°C 34%
25°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$6 Vol.
7%
24°C
$0 Vol.
24%
25°C
$0 Vol.
32%
26°C
$0 Vol.
42%
27°C
$0 Vol.
34%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$0 Vol.
24%
30°C
$0 Vol.
24%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
14%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shenzhen’s lowest temperature on August 30 stems from short-range forecast model spread in a subtropical monsoon environment, where nighttime radiative cooling is sensitive to cloud cover, humidity, and light wind. Typical late-August minimums hover near 26°C based on climatological baselines, yet recent variable moisture and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance cooling by 1–2°C. With leading outcomes within 9 percentage points, the market reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble guidance rather than a single dominant signal, and updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours are expected to sharpen the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shenzhen’s lowest temperature on August 30 stems from short-range forecast model spread in a subtropical monsoon environment, where nighttime radiative cooling is sensitive to cloud cover, humidity, and light wind. Typical late-August minimums hover near 26°C based on climatological baselines, yet recent variable moisture and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance cooling by 1–2°C. With leading outcomes within 9 percentage points, the market reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble guidance rather than a single dominant signal, and updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours are expected to sharpen the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 25–27°C for Shenzhen’s lowest temperature on August 30 stems from short-range forecast model spread in a subtropical monsoon environment, where nighttime radiative cooling is sensitive to cloud cover, humidity, and light wind. Typical late-August minimums hover near 26°C based on climatological baselines, yet recent variable moisture and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance cooling by 1–2°C. With leading outcomes within 9 percentage points, the market reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble guidance rather than a single dominant signal, and updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours are expected to sharpen the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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