Current forecasts from sources including the Met Office, GFS runs, and regional models indicate Milan minimum temperatures on August 31 will likely range 21–23 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, supporting radiational cooling but limited by residual humidity and regional warmth. This consensus on mild overnight conditions has traders assigning the highest implied probability (44.5%) to 16 °C or below, reflecting residual model spread and the possibility of localized clearer pockets enhancing cooling below typical late-August climatology near 18–20 °C. Shorter-range updates through the next 48 hours, particularly any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, remain the key variables that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 17–20 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 31?
16°C or below 87%
21°C 47%
22°C 44%
19°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
87%
17°C
24%
18°C
26%
19°C
29%
20°C
27%
21°C
47%
22°C
44%
23°C
2%
24°C
8%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
2%
16°C or below 87%
21°C 47%
22°C 44%
19°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
87%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
29%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
47%
22°C
$0 Vol.
44%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources including the Met Office, GFS runs, and regional models indicate Milan minimum temperatures on August 31 will likely range 21–23 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, supporting radiational cooling but limited by residual humidity and regional warmth. This consensus on mild overnight conditions has traders assigning the highest implied probability (44.5%) to 16 °C or below, reflecting residual model spread and the possibility of localized clearer pockets enhancing cooling below typical late-August climatology near 18–20 °C. Shorter-range updates through the next 48 hours, particularly any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, remain the key variables that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 17–20 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources including the Met Office, GFS runs, and regional models indicate Milan minimum temperatures on August 31 will likely range 21–23 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, supporting radiational cooling but limited by residual humidity and regional warmth. This consensus on mild overnight conditions has traders assigning the highest implied probability (44.5%) to 16 °C or below, reflecting residual model spread and the possibility of localized clearer pockets enhancing cooling below typical late-August climatology near 18–20 °C. Shorter-range updates through the next 48 hours, particularly any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, remain the key variables that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 17–20 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from sources including the Met Office, GFS runs, and regional models indicate Milan minimum temperatures on August 31 will likely range 21–23 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, supporting radiational cooling but limited by residual humidity and regional warmth. This consensus on mild overnight conditions has traders assigning the highest implied probability (44.5%) to 16 °C or below, reflecting residual model spread and the possibility of localized clearer pockets enhancing cooling below typical late-August climatology near 18–20 °C. Shorter-range updates through the next 48 hours, particularly any revisions to boundary-layer moisture or wind forecasts, remain the key variables that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 17–20 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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