**Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting radiative cooling overnight on August 30.** This positions the daily minimum in Milan around 20–23°C, aligning with the market's highest-implied probabilities for 24°C or higher (43.5%) and nearby values like 18–21°C. Dew points near 16–19°C and urban heat island effects further moderate overnight lows, consistent with historical late-August baselines. Recent model runs show minimal spread, though slight revisions in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 30?
24°C or higher 60%
15°C 48%
20°C 48%
21°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
6%
15°C
48%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
28%
19°C
25%
20°C
48%
21°C
48%
22°C
1%
23°C
44%
24°C or higher
60%
24°C or higher 60%
15°C 48%
20°C 48%
21°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
15°C
$0 Vol.
48%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
48%
21°C
$0 Vol.
48%
22°C
$27 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
44%
24°C or higher
$5 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting radiative cooling overnight on August 30.** This positions the daily minimum in Milan around 20–23°C, aligning with the market's highest-implied probabilities for 24°C or higher (43.5%) and nearby values like 18–21°C. Dew points near 16–19°C and urban heat island effects further moderate overnight lows, consistent with historical late-August baselines. Recent model runs show minimal spread, though slight revisions in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$37End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting radiative cooling overnight on August 30.** This positions the daily minimum in Milan around 20–23°C, aligning with the market's highest-implied probabilities for 24°C or higher (43.5%) and nearby values like 18–21°C. Dew points near 16–19°C and urban heat island effects further moderate overnight lows, consistent with historical late-August baselines. Recent model runs show minimal spread, though slight revisions in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting radiative cooling overnight on August 30.** This positions the daily minimum in Milan around 20–23°C, aligning with the market's highest-implied probabilities for 24°C or higher (43.5%) and nearby values like 18–21°C. Dew points near 16–19°C and urban heat island effects further moderate overnight lows, consistent with historical late-August baselines. Recent model runs show minimal spread, though slight revisions in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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