Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates Ankara's overnight minimum on August 29 will likely range 12–15°C under northerly flow and variable cloud cover, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Differentiating factors include radiative cooling rates under clear versus overcast skies, boundary-layer moisture from scattered showers, and wind speeds modulating heat loss, with ensemble spreads allowing for brief dips toward 9°C or below in some runs. Official Turkish Meteorological Service outlooks note seasonal norms above recent readings but highlight uncertainty in timing of any frontal passage. Updated model guidance and local station observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 29?
19°C or higher 53%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
15°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
9°C or below
2%
10°C
24%
11°C
25%
12°C
25%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
25%
17°C
2%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
53%
19°C or higher 53%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
15°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
10°C
$0 Vol.
24%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$5 Vol.
2%
18°C
$5 Vol.
8%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates Ankara's overnight minimum on August 29 will likely range 12–15°C under northerly flow and variable cloud cover, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Differentiating factors include radiative cooling rates under clear versus overcast skies, boundary-layer moisture from scattered showers, and wind speeds modulating heat loss, with ensemble spreads allowing for brief dips toward 9°C or below in some runs. Official Turkish Meteorological Service outlooks note seasonal norms above recent readings but highlight uncertainty in timing of any frontal passage. Updated model guidance and local station observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates Ankara's overnight minimum on August 29 will likely range 12–15°C under northerly flow and variable cloud cover, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Differentiating factors include radiative cooling rates under clear versus overcast skies, boundary-layer moisture from scattered showers, and wind speeds modulating heat loss, with ensemble spreads allowing for brief dips toward 9°C or below in some runs. Official Turkish Meteorological Service outlooks note seasonal norms above recent readings but highlight uncertainty in timing of any frontal passage. Updated model guidance and local station observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates Ankara's overnight minimum on August 29 will likely range 12–15°C under northerly flow and variable cloud cover, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Differentiating factors include radiative cooling rates under clear versus overcast skies, boundary-layer moisture from scattered showers, and wind speeds modulating heat loss, with ensemble spreads allowing for brief dips toward 9°C or below in some runs. Official Turkish Meteorological Service outlooks note seasonal norms above recent readings but highlight uncertainty in timing of any frontal passage. Updated model guidance and local station observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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