**Strong model consensus and real-time observations point to a minimum of 17°C in Ankara on August 25, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.** Multiple authoritative forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF/GFS ensembles, and local reporting consistently project overnight lows of 17–18°C, with temperatures bottoming out near dawn before rising through the day to highs around 31–33°C. Clear conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed efficient radiational cooling, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the region where diurnal ranges often reach 14–16°C. Trader positioning at 99.6% for exactly 17°C reflects the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution, as station data from Esenboğa and urban sites show readings already tracking the expected minimum. Realistic challenges would require an unexpected shift in steering winds, localized urban heat retention, or official post-event adjustments to recorded observations, though current atmospheric stability makes such deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 25?
17°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$3,312 Vol.
$3,312 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
18°C <1%
$3,312 Vol.
$3,312 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
$109 Vol.
No
16°C
$163 Vol.
No
17°C
$224 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$384 Vol.
No
19°C
$342 Vol.
No
20°C
$220 Vol.
No
21°C
$316 Vol.
No
22°C
$280 Vol.
No
23°C
$489 Vol.
No
24°C
$620 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$165 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus and real-time observations point to a minimum of 17°C in Ankara on August 25, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.** Multiple authoritative forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF/GFS ensembles, and local reporting consistently project overnight lows of 17–18°C, with temperatures bottoming out near dawn before rising through the day to highs around 31–33°C. Clear conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed efficient radiational cooling, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the region where diurnal ranges often reach 14–16°C.
Trader positioning at 99.6% for exactly 17°C reflects the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution, as station data from Esenboğa and urban sites show readings already tracking the expected minimum. Realistic challenges would require an unexpected shift in steering winds, localized urban heat retention, or official post-event adjustments to recorded observations, though current atmospheric stability makes such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,312End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus and real-time observations point to a minimum of 17°C in Ankara on August 25, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.** Multiple authoritative forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF/GFS ensembles, and local reporting consistently project overnight lows of 17–18°C, with temperatures bottoming out near dawn before rising through the day to highs around 31–33°C. Clear conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed efficient radiational cooling, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the region where diurnal ranges often reach 14–16°C.
Trader positioning at 99.6% for exactly 17°C reflects the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution, as station data from Esenboğa and urban sites show readings already tracking the expected minimum. Realistic challenges would require an unexpected shift in steering winds, localized urban heat retention, or official post-event adjustments to recorded observations, though current atmospheric stability makes such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,312End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Strong model consensus and real-time observations point to a minimum of 17°C in Ankara on August 25, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly flow.** Multiple authoritative forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF/GFS ensembles, and local reporting consistently project overnight lows of 17–18°C, with temperatures bottoming out near dawn before rising through the day to highs around 31–33°C. Clear conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed efficient radiational cooling, aligning with typical late-August climatology for the region where diurnal ranges often reach 14–16°C. Trader positioning at 99.6% for exactly 17°C reflects the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution, as station data from Esenboğa and urban sites show readings already tracking the expected minimum. Realistic challenges would require an unexpected shift in steering winds, localized urban heat retention, or official post-event adjustments to recorded observations, though current atmospheric stability makes such deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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