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icon for Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?
Politics·Berlin

Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

icon for Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?
Politics·Berlin

Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

Up

85% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Up

85% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).The scheduled September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an expanded electorate of roughly 2.5 million eligible voters, up from 2.44 million in the 2023 repeat vote, driven by rising naturalizations and the first inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. Recent German state contests, including Baden-Württemberg’s 69.6% turnout (up 5.8 points), reflect heightened engagement amid competitive multiparty races. Current polling shows notable shifts among CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke, and AfD, creating visible stakes that typically lift participation. These structural and contextual elements underpin the 73% market-implied probability that turnout exceeds the prior benchmark, with no offsetting demobilizing developments evident in official reports or recent coverage.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Volume
$2,261
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).The scheduled September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an expanded electorate of roughly 2.5 million eligible voters, up from 2.44 million in the 2023 repeat vote, driven by rising naturalizations and the first inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds. Recent German state contests, including Baden-Württemberg’s 69.6% turnout (up 5.8 points), reflect heightened engagement amid competitive multiparty races. Current polling shows notable shifts among CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke, and AfD, creating visible stakes that typically lift participation. These structural and contextual elements underpin the 73% market-implied probability that turnout exceeds the prior benchmark, with no offsetting demobilizing developments evident in official reports or recent coverage.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Volume
$2,261
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 73% for "Up." A price of 73% means the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?," decide whether you believe Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price at noon ET on September 20 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price at noon ET on August 6. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" is 73% for "Up," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 73% chance that Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price will finish up over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" market resolves based on a comparison of Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?'s price at noon ET on September 20 versus noon ET on August 6, using Binance BERLIN-STATE-ELECTION-TURNOUT/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the September 20 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.