Mary Peltola holds a clear edge in trader sentiment for Alaska’s November general election under ranked-choice voting, driven by her strong performance in the August 18 top-four primary—where updated counts give her 49.5% to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%—and recent polls showing her leading or narrowly ahead in final RCV rounds. The presence of another Republican named Daniel J. Sullivan, who advanced with 2.5%, introduces potential vote-splitting that could benefit Peltola in later rankings, while minor candidates like David Leslie also qualified. Polling averages hover near a toss-up or slight Peltola advantage (47-49% range), with her consistent fundraising lead and crossover appeal in the state’s independent-heavy electorate reinforcing the current consensus. Sullivan retains structural advantages as the sitting senator, yet primary momentum and the mechanics of RCV have shifted implied probabilities toward the Democrat.