Elif Eralp of Die Linke leads the market at 70% implied probability ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by recent polls placing her party first at around 22% and positioning it to lead a left-leaning coalition. Incumbent CDU governing mayor Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal over crisis management issues opened the path for replacement candidate Stefan Evers, now at 20.5%, with his party polling near 18-20%. Housing affordability and rent controls dominate the campaign, boosting Eralp’s profile as the party’s first serious contender for the post. Lower shares for Werner Graf of the Greens, Steffen Krach of the SPD, and Kristin Brinker of the AfD align with single-digit to low-teens polling, while coalition arithmetic and the absence of any party nearing a majority continue to shape trader assessments of the post-election outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Elif Eralp 70%
Stefan Evers 21%
Werner Graf 4.6%
Steffen Krach 2.8%
$38,131 Vol.
$38,131 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Elif Eralp
70%
Stefan Evers
21%
Werner Graf
5%
Steffen Krach
3%
Kristin Brinker
<1%
Elif Eralp 70%
Stefan Evers 21%
Werner Graf 4.6%
Steffen Krach 2.8%
$38,131 Vol.
$38,131 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Elif Eralp
$15,584 Vol.
70%
Stefan Evers
$12,633 Vol.
21%
Werner Graf
$6,506 Vol.
5%
Steffen Krach
$1,313 Vol.
3%
Kristin Brinker
$2,095 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elif Eralp of Die Linke leads the market at 70% implied probability ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by recent polls placing her party first at around 22% and positioning it to lead a left-leaning coalition. Incumbent CDU governing mayor Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal over crisis management issues opened the path for replacement candidate Stefan Evers, now at 20.5%, with his party polling near 18-20%. Housing affordability and rent controls dominate the campaign, boosting Eralp’s profile as the party’s first serious contender for the post. Lower shares for Werner Graf of the Greens, Steffen Krach of the SPD, and Kristin Brinker of the AfD align with single-digit to low-teens polling, while coalition arithmetic and the absence of any party nearing a majority continue to shape trader assessments of the post-election outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
Volume
$38,131End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elif Eralp of Die Linke leads the market at 70% implied probability ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by recent polls placing her party first at around 22% and positioning it to lead a left-leaning coalition. Incumbent CDU governing mayor Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal over crisis management issues opened the path for replacement candidate Stefan Evers, now at 20.5%, with his party polling near 18-20%. Housing affordability and rent controls dominate the campaign, boosting Eralp’s profile as the party’s first serious contender for the post. Lower shares for Werner Graf of the Greens, Steffen Krach of the SPD, and Kristin Brinker of the AfD align with single-digit to low-teens polling, while coalition arithmetic and the absence of any party nearing a majority continue to shape trader assessments of the post-election outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,131End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elif Eralp of Die Linke leads the market at 70% implied probability ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by recent polls placing her party first at around 22% and positioning it to lead a left-leaning coalition. Incumbent CDU governing mayor Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal over crisis management issues opened the path for replacement candidate Stefan Evers, now at 20.5%, with his party polling near 18-20%. Housing affordability and rent controls dominate the campaign, boosting Eralp’s profile as the party’s first serious contender for the post. Lower shares for Werner Graf of the Greens, Steffen Krach of the SPD, and Kristin Brinker of the AfD align with single-digit to low-teens polling, while coalition arithmetic and the absence of any party nearing a majority continue to shape trader assessments of the post-election outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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