The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, will determine the next state government after a shortened term. Recent polls show Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD at 18 percent each, with the Greens near 16 percent and the SPD at 12-13 percent; BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner, who withdrew as lead candidate following criticism of the government’s crisis response, trails in voter preference. No two-party majority appears likely, keeping three-party options such as Linke-Greens-SPD or CDU-Greens-SPD in focus for post-election negotiations. Housing costs and transport rank as top voter concerns, aligning with Die Linke’s platform gains in recent surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
SPD
87%
Grüne
85%
Linke
71%
CDU
43%
FDP
6%
BSW
4%
AfD
2%
FW
1%
$4,360 Vol.
SPD
$177 Vol.
87%
Grüne
$98 Vol.
85%
Linke
$833 Vol.
71%
CDU
$853 Vol.
43%
FDP
$209 Vol.
6%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
AfD
$1,269 Vol.
2%
FW
$641 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, will determine the next state government after a shortened term. Recent polls show Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD at 18 percent each, with the Greens near 16 percent and the SPD at 12-13 percent; BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner, who withdrew as lead candidate following criticism of the government’s crisis response, trails in voter preference. No two-party majority appears likely, keeping three-party options such as Linke-Greens-SPD or CDU-Greens-SPD in focus for post-election negotiations. Housing costs and transport rank as top voter concerns, aligning with Die Linke’s platform gains in recent surveys.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$4,360End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, will determine the next state government after a shortened term. Recent polls show Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD at 18 percent each, with the Greens near 16 percent and the SPD at 12-13 percent; BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner, who withdrew as lead candidate following criticism of the government’s crisis response, trails in voter preference. No two-party majority appears likely, keeping three-party options such as Linke-Greens-SPD or CDU-Greens-SPD in focus for post-election negotiations. Housing costs and transport rank as top voter concerns, aligning with Die Linke’s platform gains in recent surveys.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$4,360End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, will determine the next state government after a shortened term. Recent polls show Die Linke leading at around 20-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD at 18 percent each, with the Greens near 16 percent and the SPD at 12-13 percent; BSW and FDP remain below the 5 percent threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner, who withdrew as lead candidate following criticism of the government’s crisis response, trails in voter preference. No two-party majority appears likely, keeping three-party options such as Linke-Greens-SPD or CDU-Greens-SPD in focus for post-election negotiations. Housing costs and transport rank as top voter concerns, aligning with Die Linke’s platform gains in recent surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions