Recent polling averages from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August place the AfD first at 35–36% and the SPD second at 28–29%, ahead of Die Linke near 11% and the CDU near 10%. With the 20 September Landtag election just weeks away and no major campaign shifts or scandals altering voter preferences, traders view the SPD’s consistent second-place standing as the dominant factor driving the 88% implied probability. Other parties remain well behind in surveys, limiting realistic paths to overtake the SPD absent a sharp late swing. The market prices reflect this stable ordering rather than any expectation of an outright SPD victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSPD 88%
AfD 11.1%
Grüne <1%
BSW <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
SPD
88%
AfD
11%
Grüne
<1%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
CDU
<1%
FW
<1%
Linke
<1%
SPD 88%
AfD 11.1%
Grüne <1%
BSW <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
SPD
$2,057 Vol.
88%
AfD
$2,264 Vol.
11%
Grüne
$844 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$824 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$898 Vol.
<1%
CDU
$806 Vol.
<1%
FW
$653 Vol.
<1%
Linke
$815 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August place the AfD first at 35–36% and the SPD second at 28–29%, ahead of Die Linke near 11% and the CDU near 10%. With the 20 September Landtag election just weeks away and no major campaign shifts or scandals altering voter preferences, traders view the SPD’s consistent second-place standing as the dominant factor driving the 88% implied probability. Other parties remain well behind in surveys, limiting realistic paths to overtake the SPD absent a sharp late swing. The market prices reflect this stable ordering rather than any expectation of an outright SPD victory.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$9,162End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August place the AfD first at 35–36% and the SPD second at 28–29%, ahead of Die Linke near 11% and the CDU near 10%. With the 20 September Landtag election just weeks away and no major campaign shifts or scandals altering voter preferences, traders view the SPD’s consistent second-place standing as the dominant factor driving the 88% implied probability. Other parties remain well behind in surveys, limiting realistic paths to overtake the SPD absent a sharp late swing. The market prices reflect this stable ordering rather than any expectation of an outright SPD victory.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$9,162End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August place the AfD first at 35–36% and the SPD second at 28–29%, ahead of Die Linke near 11% and the CDU near 10%. With the 20 September Landtag election just weeks away and no major campaign shifts or scandals altering voter preferences, traders view the SPD’s consistent second-place standing as the dominant factor driving the 88% implied probability. Other parties remain well behind in surveys, limiting realistic paths to overtake the SPD absent a sharp late swing. The market prices reflect this stable ordering rather than any expectation of an outright SPD victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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