**Forecast models from the Met Office and other agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 16–17°C for London on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** An unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system is driving southwesterly winds and frequent showers, which limit daytime heating while suppressing strong nighttime radiative cooling under cloudy skies. Current conditions show temperatures already easing from recent peaks above 24°C, with overnight minima holding near 16–17°C amid 80–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain. This pattern favors 17°C (49% implied probability) as the most likely minimum, followed by 16°C (25%) if showers intensify or winds strengthen slightly. Higher outcomes like 18°C (23.5%) remain possible only if breaks in cloud allow marginally more warmth to linger, while cooler readings below 15°C appear unlikely without an unexpected northerly shift. The market reflects trader focus on these short-range ensemble forecasts, which have shown high consistency over the past 48 hours as the frontal system approaches. Updated model runs ahead of the weekend will be the next key inputs for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 29?
Lowest temperature in London on August 29?
17°C 44%
18°C 24%
16°C 23%
14°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
12°C or below
4%
13°C
5%
14°C
16%
15°C
9%
16°C
23%
17°C
44%
18°C
24%
19°C
7%
20°C
2%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
8%
17°C 44%
18°C 24%
16°C 23%
14°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
12°C or below
$86 Vol.
4%
13°C
$65 Vol.
5%
14°C
$25 Vol.
16%
15°C
$0 Vol.
9%
16°C
$179 Vol.
23%
17°C
$166 Vol.
44%
18°C
$195 Vol.
24%
19°C
$273 Vol.
7%
20°C
$5 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
8%
22°C or higher
$5 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the Met Office and other agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 16–17°C for London on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** An unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system is driving southwesterly winds and frequent showers, which limit daytime heating while suppressing strong nighttime radiative cooling under cloudy skies. Current conditions show temperatures already easing from recent peaks above 24°C, with overnight minima holding near 16–17°C amid 80–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain.
This pattern favors 17°C (49% implied probability) as the most likely minimum, followed by 16°C (25%) if showers intensify or winds strengthen slightly. Higher outcomes like 18°C (23.5%) remain possible only if breaks in cloud allow marginally more warmth to linger, while cooler readings below 15°C appear unlikely without an unexpected northerly shift. The market reflects trader focus on these short-range ensemble forecasts, which have shown high consistency over the past 48 hours as the frontal system approaches. Updated model runs ahead of the weekend will be the next key inputs for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$997End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the Met Office and other agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 16–17°C for London on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** An unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system is driving southwesterly winds and frequent showers, which limit daytime heating while suppressing strong nighttime radiative cooling under cloudy skies. Current conditions show temperatures already easing from recent peaks above 24°C, with overnight minima holding near 16–17°C amid 80–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain.
This pattern favors 17°C (49% implied probability) as the most likely minimum, followed by 16°C (25%) if showers intensify or winds strengthen slightly. Higher outcomes like 18°C (23.5%) remain possible only if breaks in cloud allow marginally more warmth to linger, while cooler readings below 15°C appear unlikely without an unexpected northerly shift. The market reflects trader focus on these short-range ensemble forecasts, which have shown high consistency over the past 48 hours as the frontal system approaches. Updated model runs ahead of the weekend will be the next key inputs for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$997End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the Met Office and other agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 16–17°C for London on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes.** An unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system is driving southwesterly winds and frequent showers, which limit daytime heating while suppressing strong nighttime radiative cooling under cloudy skies. Current conditions show temperatures already easing from recent peaks above 24°C, with overnight minima holding near 16–17°C amid 80–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain. This pattern favors 17°C (49% implied probability) as the most likely minimum, followed by 16°C (25%) if showers intensify or winds strengthen slightly. Higher outcomes like 18°C (23.5%) remain possible only if breaks in cloud allow marginally more warmth to linger, while cooler readings below 15°C appear unlikely without an unexpected northerly shift. The market reflects trader focus on these short-range ensemble forecasts, which have shown high consistency over the past 48 hours as the frontal system approaches. Updated model runs ahead of the weekend will be the next key inputs for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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