Latest forecast guidance from the Met Office and global models shows London overnight lows on August 28 settling near 16–17 °C, driven by clearing post-thunderstorm conditions, moderate southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling, and extensive cloud cover suppressing temperature drops. These factors align closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 16 °C (49.5 %) and 17 °C (32.0 %), while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the modest chance of clearer skies allowing greater heat loss. Historical late-August climatology for the region supports typical minima around 15–16 °C, but current model consensus favors the slightly milder outcome given the recent warm, humid air mass and lack of strong high pressure. Updated model runs and official Met Office briefings tonight will provide the final inputs before the market resolves on observed minimum temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 28?
Lowest temperature in London on August 28?
16°C 50%
17°C 32%
15°C 13%
14°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
5%
15°C
13%
16°C
50%
17°C
32%
18°C
4%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 50%
17°C 32%
15°C 13%
14°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
11°C or below
$155 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$98 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$187 Vol.
2%
14°C
$293 Vol.
5%
15°C
$769 Vol.
13%
16°C
$927 Vol.
50%
17°C
$655 Vol.
32%
18°C
$303 Vol.
4%
19°C
$658 Vol.
1%
20°C
$145 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast guidance from the Met Office and global models shows London overnight lows on August 28 settling near 16–17 °C, driven by clearing post-thunderstorm conditions, moderate southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling, and extensive cloud cover suppressing temperature drops. These factors align closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 16 °C (49.5 %) and 17 °C (32.0 %), while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the modest chance of clearer skies allowing greater heat loss. Historical late-August climatology for the region supports typical minima around 15–16 °C, but current model consensus favors the slightly milder outcome given the recent warm, humid air mass and lack of strong high pressure. Updated model runs and official Met Office briefings tonight will provide the final inputs before the market resolves on observed minimum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,350End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast guidance from the Met Office and global models shows London overnight lows on August 28 settling near 16–17 °C, driven by clearing post-thunderstorm conditions, moderate southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling, and extensive cloud cover suppressing temperature drops. These factors align closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 16 °C (49.5 %) and 17 °C (32.0 %), while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the modest chance of clearer skies allowing greater heat loss. Historical late-August climatology for the region supports typical minima around 15–16 °C, but current model consensus favors the slightly milder outcome given the recent warm, humid air mass and lack of strong high pressure. Updated model runs and official Met Office briefings tonight will provide the final inputs before the market resolves on observed minimum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,350End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast guidance from the Met Office and global models shows London overnight lows on August 28 settling near 16–17 °C, driven by clearing post-thunderstorm conditions, moderate southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling, and extensive cloud cover suppressing temperature drops. These factors align closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 16 °C (49.5 %) and 17 °C (32.0 %), while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the modest chance of clearer skies allowing greater heat loss. Historical late-August climatology for the region supports typical minima around 15–16 °C, but current model consensus favors the slightly milder outcome given the recent warm, humid air mass and lack of strong high pressure. Updated model runs and official Met Office briefings tonight will provide the final inputs before the market resolves on observed minimum temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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