Recent forecasts for Beijing on August 27 show model spread in overnight minimums, with official and ensemble guidance ranging from 17–18°C under widespread rain and cloud cover to 20–21°C amid lighter showers and partial clearing. This variability stems from steering flow patterns, the timing of any frontal passage, and radiative cooling under variable humidity and wind speeds near 2–4 m/s. Historical August climatology places average lows near 20°C, making the closely bunched market-implied odds around 19–22°C a direct reflection of unresolved differences among global and regional models ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 27?
17°C or below 55%
22°C 47%
20°C 30%
21°C 27%
$11,673 Vol.
$11,673 Vol.
17°C or below
55%
18°C
1%
19°C
26%
20°C
30%
21°C
27%
22°C
47%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
17°C or below 55%
22°C 47%
20°C 30%
21°C 27%
$11,673 Vol.
$11,673 Vol.
17°C or below
55%
18°C
1%
19°C
26%
20°C
30%
21°C
27%
22°C
47%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Beijing on August 27 show model spread in overnight minimums, with official and ensemble guidance ranging from 17–18°C under widespread rain and cloud cover to 20–21°C amid lighter showers and partial clearing. This variability stems from steering flow patterns, the timing of any frontal passage, and radiative cooling under variable humidity and wind speeds near 2–4 m/s. Historical August climatology places average lows near 20°C, making the closely bunched market-implied odds around 19–22°C a direct reflection of unresolved differences among global and regional models ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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