Recent forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global models points to a low of 18–21°C in Beijing on August 28 as northerly flow behind a frontal boundary brings cooler, moister air and widespread cloud cover with periods of light rain. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while steering patterns suppress the typical late-August diurnal range, keeping the overnight minimum above seasonal normals near 20°C. Minor differences among ensemble runs hinge on the exact timing of any partial clearing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 18–21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 28?
17°C 47%
20°C 47%
21°C 46%
18°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
15°C or below
4%
16°C
29%
17°C
47%
18°C
44%
19°C
44%
20°C
47%
21°C
46%
22°C
41%
23°C
24%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
7%
17°C 47%
20°C 47%
21°C 46%
18°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
15°C or below
$37 Vol.
4%
16°C
$15 Vol.
29%
17°C
$10 Vol.
47%
18°C
$0 Vol.
44%
19°C
$0 Vol.
44%
20°C
$0 Vol.
47%
21°C
$0 Vol.
46%
22°C
$0 Vol.
41%
23°C
$26 Vol.
24%
24°C
$37 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$27 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global models points to a low of 18–21°C in Beijing on August 28 as northerly flow behind a frontal boundary brings cooler, moister air and widespread cloud cover with periods of light rain. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while steering patterns suppress the typical late-August diurnal range, keeping the overnight minimum above seasonal normals near 20°C. Minor differences among ensemble runs hinge on the exact timing of any partial clearing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 18–21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global models points to a low of 18–21°C in Beijing on August 28 as northerly flow behind a frontal boundary brings cooler, moister air and widespread cloud cover with periods of light rain. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while steering patterns suppress the typical late-August diurnal range, keeping the overnight minimum above seasonal normals near 20°C. Minor differences among ensemble runs hinge on the exact timing of any partial clearing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 18–21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global models points to a low of 18–21°C in Beijing on August 28 as northerly flow behind a frontal boundary brings cooler, moister air and widespread cloud cover with periods of light rain. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while steering patterns suppress the typical late-August diurnal range, keeping the overnight minimum above seasonal normals near 20°C. Minor differences among ensemble runs hinge on the exact timing of any partial clearing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 18–21°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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