Recent meteorological forecasts and live observations from official monitoring sources confirm Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 24 reached exactly 31°C, driving the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. In the city's humid subtropical monsoon climate, typical late-August conditions featured high humidity near 80%, partly cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and southwest winds that limited radiative heating and kept daytime maxima in the low 30s—aligning closely with historical August averages around 32°C. This consensus among multiple models and real-time data has reinforced trader confidence, as deviations would require unexpected clear skies or altered steering patterns to push the high notably higher or lower before official resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$73,515 Vol.
$73,515 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$73,515 Vol.
$73,515 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$384 Vol.
No
26°C
$426 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,131 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,574 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,287 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,722 Vol.
No
31°C
$23,830 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$11,634 Vol.
No
33°C
$9,503 Vol.
No
34°C
$6,240 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$6,785 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts and live observations from official monitoring sources confirm Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 24 reached exactly 31°C, driving the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. In the city's humid subtropical monsoon climate, typical late-August conditions featured high humidity near 80%, partly cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and southwest winds that limited radiative heating and kept daytime maxima in the low 30s—aligning closely with historical August averages around 32°C. This consensus among multiple models and real-time data has reinforced trader confidence, as deviations would require unexpected clear skies or altered steering patterns to push the high notably higher or lower before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$73,515End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts and live observations from official monitoring sources confirm Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 24 reached exactly 31°C, driving the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. In the city's humid subtropical monsoon climate, typical late-August conditions featured high humidity near 80%, partly cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and southwest winds that limited radiative heating and kept daytime maxima in the low 30s—aligning closely with historical August averages around 32°C. This consensus among multiple models and real-time data has reinforced trader confidence, as deviations would require unexpected clear skies or altered steering patterns to push the high notably higher or lower before official resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$73,515End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent meteorological forecasts and live observations from official monitoring sources confirm Shenzhen's peak temperature on August 24 reached exactly 31°C, driving the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. In the city's humid subtropical monsoon climate, typical late-August conditions featured high humidity near 80%, partly cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and southwest winds that limited radiative heating and kept daytime maxima in the low 30s—aligning closely with historical August averages around 32°C. This consensus among multiple models and real-time data has reinforced trader confidence, as deviations would require unexpected clear skies or altered steering patterns to push the high notably higher or lower before official resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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