Persistent supply bottlenecks in HBM3e memory and TSMC CoWoS packaging have constrained H200 availability through mid-2026, supporting trader consensus near the $4.00–$4.50 per GPU-hour range on specialist neocloud providers even as Blackwell B200 volumes ramp. Recent data shows on-demand medians clustered at $3.50–$4.50 across providers like Jarvislabs and Vast.ai, with hyperscalers commanding premiums above $10; earlier 2026 saw sharp drops of up to 40% amid initial Blackwell spill-over and capacity additions. Key swing factors include the pace of Samsung/Micron HBM production ramps expected later this year, sustained hyperscaler AI training demand, and potential China export shifts that could redirect supply. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether these dynamics ease enough by year-end to push median rentals lower or hold firmer amid booked capacity through 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,583 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
↑ $7.00
41%
↑ $6.00
70%
↓ $4.00
86%
↓ $3.75
55%
↓ $3.50
67%
↓ $3.00
38%
↓ $2.50
12%
$11,583 Vol.
↑ $7.00
$169 Vol.
41%
↑ $6.00
$213 Vol.
70%
↓ $4.00
$615 Vol.
86%
↓ $3.75
$3,991 Vol.
55%
↓ $3.50
$731 Vol.
67%
↓ $3.00
$2,506 Vol.
38%
↓ $2.50
$156 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.Persistent supply bottlenecks in HBM3e memory and TSMC CoWoS packaging have constrained H200 availability through mid-2026, supporting trader consensus near the $4.00–$4.50 per GPU-hour range on specialist neocloud providers even as Blackwell B200 volumes ramp. Recent data shows on-demand medians clustered at $3.50–$4.50 across providers like Jarvislabs and Vast.ai, with hyperscalers commanding premiums above $10; earlier 2026 saw sharp drops of up to 40% amid initial Blackwell spill-over and capacity additions. Key swing factors include the pace of Samsung/Micron HBM production ramps expected later this year, sustained hyperscaler AI training demand, and potential China export shifts that could redirect supply. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether these dynamics ease enough by year-end to push median rentals lower or hold firmer amid booked capacity through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 6:34 PM ET
Volume
$11,583End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.Persistent supply bottlenecks in HBM3e memory and TSMC CoWoS packaging have constrained H200 availability through mid-2026, supporting trader consensus near the $4.00–$4.50 per GPU-hour range on specialist neocloud providers even as Blackwell B200 volumes ramp. Recent data shows on-demand medians clustered at $3.50–$4.50 across providers like Jarvislabs and Vast.ai, with hyperscalers commanding premiums above $10; earlier 2026 saw sharp drops of up to 40% amid initial Blackwell spill-over and capacity additions. Key swing factors include the pace of Samsung/Micron HBM production ramps expected later this year, sustained hyperscaler AI training demand, and potential China export shifts that could redirect supply. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether these dynamics ease enough by year-end to push median rentals lower or hold firmer amid booked capacity through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H200 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$11,583End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent supply bottlenecks in HBM3e memory and TSMC CoWoS packaging have constrained H200 availability through mid-2026, supporting trader consensus near the $4.00–$4.50 per GPU-hour range on specialist neocloud providers even as Blackwell B200 volumes ramp. Recent data shows on-demand medians clustered at $3.50–$4.50 across providers like Jarvislabs and Vast.ai, with hyperscalers commanding premiums above $10; earlier 2026 saw sharp drops of up to 40% amid initial Blackwell spill-over and capacity additions. Key swing factors include the pace of Samsung/Micron HBM production ramps expected later this year, sustained hyperscaler AI training demand, and potential China export shifts that could redirect supply. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether these dynamics ease enough by year-end to push median rentals lower or hold firmer amid booked capacity through 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions