Ongoing supply constraints from TSMC's CoWoS packaging and HBM3e memory allocation, fully booked well into 2027, combined with hyperscaler forward orders for Blackwell systems, have sustained B200 on-demand medians near $6–7 per GPU-hour in August 2026 despite broader availability. Surging demand from frontier model training and agentic inference workloads has offset typical post-launch price erosion, while spot rates on marketplaces dip to $3–4 amid competitive pressure from AMD MI355X and hyperscaler custom ASICs. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $5.50–$6.50 brackets because these opposing forces—gradual production increases versus persistent power limits and AI compute needs—create balanced uncertainty for December 2026 resolution, with potential catalysts including further AMD adoption or new data center capacity announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$6.00-$6.50 22%
$5.50-$6.00 20%
$4.50-$5.00 15%
$5.00-$5.50 13.7%
$59,982 Vol.
$59,982 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.00
6%
$3.00-$3.50
5%
$3.50-$4.00
4%
$4.00-$4.50
6%
$4.50-$5.00
15%
$5.00-$5.50
14%
$5.50-$6.00
20%
$6.00-$6.50
22%
$6.50-$7.00
9%
$7.00+
9%
$6.00-$6.50 22%
$5.50-$6.00 20%
$4.50-$5.00 15%
$5.00-$5.50 13.7%
$59,982 Vol.
$59,982 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.00
$3,041 Vol.
6%
$3.00-$3.50
$3,361 Vol.
5%
$3.50-$4.00
$3,790 Vol.
4%
$4.00-$4.50
$4,311 Vol.
6%
$4.50-$5.00
$10,437 Vol.
15%
$5.00-$5.50
$7,803 Vol.
14%
$5.50-$6.00
$5,940 Vol.
20%
$6.00-$6.50
$9,789 Vol.
22%
$6.50-$7.00
$5,559 Vol.
9%
$7.00+
$5,951 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Ongoing supply constraints from TSMC's CoWoS packaging and HBM3e memory allocation, fully booked well into 2027, combined with hyperscaler forward orders for Blackwell systems, have sustained B200 on-demand medians near $6–7 per GPU-hour in August 2026 despite broader availability. Surging demand from frontier model training and agentic inference workloads has offset typical post-launch price erosion, while spot rates on marketplaces dip to $3–4 amid competitive pressure from AMD MI355X and hyperscaler custom ASICs. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $5.50–$6.50 brackets because these opposing forces—gradual production increases versus persistent power limits and AI compute needs—create balanced uncertainty for December 2026 resolution, with potential catalysts including further AMD adoption or new data center capacity announcements.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$59,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Ongoing supply constraints from TSMC's CoWoS packaging and HBM3e memory allocation, fully booked well into 2027, combined with hyperscaler forward orders for Blackwell systems, have sustained B200 on-demand medians near $6–7 per GPU-hour in August 2026 despite broader availability. Surging demand from frontier model training and agentic inference workloads has offset typical post-launch price erosion, while spot rates on marketplaces dip to $3–4 amid competitive pressure from AMD MI355X and hyperscaler custom ASICs. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $5.50–$6.50 brackets because these opposing forces—gradual production increases versus persistent power limits and AI compute needs—create balanced uncertainty for December 2026 resolution, with potential catalysts including further AMD adoption or new data center capacity announcements.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$59,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing supply constraints from TSMC's CoWoS packaging and HBM3e memory allocation, fully booked well into 2027, combined with hyperscaler forward orders for Blackwell systems, have sustained B200 on-demand medians near $6–7 per GPU-hour in August 2026 despite broader availability. Surging demand from frontier model training and agentic inference workloads has offset typical post-launch price erosion, while spot rates on marketplaces dip to $3–4 amid competitive pressure from AMD MI355X and hyperscaler custom ASICs. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $5.50–$6.50 brackets because these opposing forces—gradual production increases versus persistent power limits and AI compute needs—create balanced uncertainty for December 2026 resolution, with potential catalysts including further AMD adoption or new data center capacity announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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