Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, positioned as delivering near-frontier intelligence comparable to Claude Fable 5 at roughly half the cost, has driven the market’s strong preference for its high- and max-effort variants. Traders cite the model’s expanded 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, full effort ladder, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks as key advantages over prior Opus releases like the 4.6 series. With no major competing model launches reported in the past month and Fable 5 remaining gated or higher-cost, market-implied odds reflect expectations that Opus 5 configurations will top independent leaderboards and capability evaluations by early September. Resolution criteria around demonstrated performance on standard benchmarks and real-world agent tasks further support this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-high 51%
claude-opus-5-max 22%
Other 18.3%
claude-opus-4-6-high 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
51%
claude-opus-5-max
29%
Other
18%
claude-opus-4-6-high
4%
claude-opus-5-high 51%
claude-opus-5-max 22%
Other 18.3%
claude-opus-4-6-high 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
$2,346 Vol.
51%
claude-opus-5-max
$2,031 Vol.
29%
Other
$507 Vol.
18%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$480 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, positioned as delivering near-frontier intelligence comparable to Claude Fable 5 at roughly half the cost, has driven the market’s strong preference for its high- and max-effort variants. Traders cite the model’s expanded 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, full effort ladder, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks as key advantages over prior Opus releases like the 4.6 series. With no major competing model launches reported in the past month and Fable 5 remaining gated or higher-cost, market-implied odds reflect expectations that Opus 5 configurations will top independent leaderboards and capability evaluations by early September. Resolution criteria around demonstrated performance on standard benchmarks and real-world agent tasks further support this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$5,364End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, positioned as delivering near-frontier intelligence comparable to Claude Fable 5 at roughly half the cost, has driven the market’s strong preference for its high- and max-effort variants. Traders cite the model’s expanded 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, full effort ladder, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks as key advantages over prior Opus releases like the 4.6 series. With no major competing model launches reported in the past month and Fable 5 remaining gated or higher-cost, market-implied odds reflect expectations that Opus 5 configurations will top independent leaderboards and capability evaluations by early September. Resolution criteria around demonstrated performance on standard benchmarks and real-world agent tasks further support this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$5,364End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, positioned as delivering near-frontier intelligence comparable to Claude Fable 5 at roughly half the cost, has driven the market’s strong preference for its high- and max-effort variants. Traders cite the model’s expanded 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, full effort ladder, and strong results on coding and agentic benchmarks as key advantages over prior Opus releases like the 4.6 series. With no major competing model launches reported in the past month and Fable 5 remaining gated or higher-cost, market-implied odds reflect expectations that Opus 5 configurations will top independent leaderboards and capability evaluations by early September. Resolution criteria around demonstrated performance on standard benchmarks and real-world agent tasks further support this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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