Traders assign Anthropic a 91% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of September, driven by its Claude large language model family demonstrating superior performance on third-party benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and safety alignment relative to peers. Recent iterative releases and enterprise adoption signals have reinforced this lead in the weeks leading into the market close. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at far lower odds amid slower perceived progress on comparable capabilities. A late-September model launch or benchmark breakthrough from a rival could narrow the gap, though the compressed timeline limits realistic opportunities for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.8%
Google 1.9%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$495,635 Vol.
$495,635 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
6%
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.8%
Google 1.9%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$495,635 Vol.
$495,635 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$61,943 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$28,319 Vol.
6%
$25,626 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$29,475 Vol.
2%
Meta
$24,767 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$29,233 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$31,736 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$25,136 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$19,402 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$27,678 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$18,434 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,618 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$16,753 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$19,033 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$16,539 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,148 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$14,320 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$14,486 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$18,597 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$12,889 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$21,501 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a 91% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of September, driven by its Claude large language model family demonstrating superior performance on third-party benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and safety alignment relative to peers. Recent iterative releases and enterprise adoption signals have reinforced this lead in the weeks leading into the market close. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at far lower odds amid slower perceived progress on comparable capabilities. A late-September model launch or benchmark breakthrough from a rival could narrow the gap, though the compressed timeline limits realistic opportunities for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$495,635End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a 91% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of September, driven by its Claude large language model family demonstrating superior performance on third-party benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and safety alignment relative to peers. Recent iterative releases and enterprise adoption signals have reinforced this lead in the weeks leading into the market close. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at far lower odds amid slower perceived progress on comparable capabilities. A late-September model launch or benchmark breakthrough from a rival could narrow the gap, though the compressed timeline limits realistic opportunities for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$495,635End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic a 91% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of September, driven by its Claude large language model family demonstrating superior performance on third-party benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and safety alignment relative to peers. Recent iterative releases and enterprise adoption signals have reinforced this lead in the weeks leading into the market close. OpenAI, Google, and others sit at far lower odds amid slower perceived progress on comparable capabilities. A late-September model launch or benchmark breakthrough from a rival could narrow the gap, though the compressed timeline limits realistic opportunities for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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